马士基WEEK6报价超预期下调，CMA部分航线船舶继续绕行好望角

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Maersk's WEEK6 quotation dropped more than expected, leading to a downward revision of the valuation of the delivery settlement price of the 02 contract. The cargo volume in December and January was at a relatively high level within the year [4]. - Canceling the VAT export tax - rebate policy for products such as photovoltaics may disrupt the off - season characteristics of the 04 contract, and the fluctuation of the 04 contract is expected to increase. Maersk's attempt to resume navigation through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal will disrupt the expectations of more distant contracts [6]. - In normal years, April and October are the months with the lowest freight rates. After the cancellation of the VAT export tax - rebate, it is necessary to pay attention to whether the cargo volume from the Far East to Europe in February and March can significantly increase and whether the actual freight rates will be firmer than in normal years. Before the Spring Festival, the overall driving force is expected to be bearish, and the short - selling direction has certain advantages. After the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the behavioral changes of shipping companies [6]. - The delivery pressure of ultra - large vessels in 2026 is relatively small, but the annual delivery volume of vessels over 17,000 TEU in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 40 ships. The delivery volume of vessels over 17,000 TEU in the first half of 2026 is only 4 ships [3]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Futures Prices - As of January 20, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures was 61,346.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 37,315.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1710.00, 1112.60, 1317.40, 1467.90, 1052.90, and 1318.00 respectively [7]. 3.2 Spot Prices - Online quotations: For Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam route, the WEEK4 price was 1695/2730, WEEK5 was 1515/2430, and WEEK6 was 1265/2010. Other shipping companies also had corresponding price quotations for different time periods [1]. - The current estimated first - phase delivery settlement price corresponds to a spot price of about 2700 - 2800 US dollars/FEU (initially estimated to be around 1900 points). The second - phase delivery settlement price corresponds to an SCFIS initially estimated at 2500 - 2600 US dollars/FEU. The 2 - month contract delivery settlement price is initially estimated to be around 1700 points [5]. 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - Static supply: As of December 31, 2025, 268 container ships with a total capacity of 2.155 million TEU were delivered in 2025. Among them, 80 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and a total capacity of 1.213 million TEU were delivered, and 13 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU and a total capacity of 277,672 TEU were delivered. In terms of delivery expectations, for 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships, 781,200 TEU (53 ships) will be delivered in 2026, 944,500 TEU (64 ships) in 2027, 1.212 million TEU (82 ships) in 2028, and 415,400 TEU (29 ships) in 2029. For ships over 17,000 TEU, 210,400 TEU (9 ships) will be delivered in 2026, 862,800 TEU (40 ships) in 2027, 1.5734 million TEU (78 ships) in 2028, and 1.3755 million TEU (67 ships) in 2029 [2][3]. - Dynamic supply: The average weekly capacity in the remaining 2 weeks of January was 342,200 TEU, with WEEK4/5 capacities of 408,600/275,800 TEU respectively. The average weekly capacity in February was 273,700 TEU, and the capacities of WEEK6/7/8/9 were 255,800/325,200/292,100/221,800 TEU respectively. The average weekly capacity in March was 289,700 TEU, and the capacities of WEEK10/11/12/13/14 were 255,500/328,400/343,300/274,200/247,300 TEU respectively. There were 2 TBNs and 8 blank sailings in February and 5 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in March [3]. 3.4 Supply Chain - CMA CGM has decided to divert ships deployed on the FAL 1, FAL 3, and MEX routes via the Cape of Good Hope instead of passing through the Suez Canal due to the complex and uncertain international situation [2]. 3.5 Demand and European Economy - Canceling the VAT export tax - rebate policy for products such as photovoltaics may disrupt the shipping rhythm of related industries and further affect the pricing strategies of shipping companies. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the cargo volume from the Far East to Europe in February and March can significantly increase and whether the actual freight rates will be firmer than in normal years [6].