黑色商品日报-20260121

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides daily research and analysis on various black commodities, including steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon. It predicts that the short - term trends of these commodities will be mainly in a state of narrow - range fluctuations or oscillations. For example, steel is expected to have a narrow - range oscillation, while iron ore, coking coal, coke, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon are expected to oscillate [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - Steel: The rebar futures price dropped, with the rebar 2605 contract closing at 3111 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton or 0.92% from the previous trading day, and the position increased by 13,300 lots. Spot prices also fell slightly, and the trading volume declined. Due to a major explosion at a large steel mill's plate plant and seasonal maintenance of domestic steel mills approaching the Spring Festival, the daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills decreased by 14,900 tons to 2.2801 million tons last week, and there is a downward trend in the future, which will put pressure on the raw material supply - demand. The decline in iron ore and coking coal prices in recent days has suppressed the overall trend of the black series. However, steel mill production cuts and maintenance will relieve the supply pressure in the steel market to some extent. It is expected that the short - term rebar futures price will mainly operate in a narrow - range oscillation [1]. - Iron Ore: The main contract i2605 of iron ore futures fell to 789.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.5 yuan/ton or 0.57% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 360,000 lots and a reduction of 30,000 lots in positions. The prices of mainstream port spot varieties also declined. On the supply side, the shipments from Australia and Brazil continued to decline, while those from other countries increased, and the global shipments decreased. On the demand side, the hot metal output decreased by 14,900 tons to 2.2801 million tons. The inventories at 47 ports and steel mills continued to accumulate. Since the previous ore price has risen to a relatively high level, there is a lack of fundamental support for further upward movement. With the combination of long and short factors, the ore price is expected to show an oscillating trend [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures price dropped, with the coking coal 2605 contract closing at 1124 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50.5 yuan/ton or 4.3%, and the position increased by 29,998 lots. In the spot market, the price of lean clean coal in Changzhi, Shanxi increased, while the prices of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal and No. 3 clean coal at the Ganqimao Port decreased. On the supply side, the production of coal mines in the production areas is stable, the supply of coking coal is growing steadily, and the overall shipment of coal mines has improved with a continuous decline in inventory. On the demand side, the coking and steel enterprises are in the stage of replenishing inventory, but the procurement rhythm has slowed down slightly. Although there is still an expectation of subsequent replenishment, the procurement is still cautious, and they are resistant to some high - priced coal resources. It is expected that the short - term coking coal futures price will operate in an oscillating manner [1]. - Coke: The coke futures price dropped, with the coke 2605 contract closing at 1673.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47.5 yuan/ton or 2.76%, and the position increased by 792 lots. In the spot market, the quoted price of port coke decreased. On the supply side, the current operation of coking enterprises is good, the coke output is relatively stable, and they are mainly focused on active shipments. Traders have reduced their purchases considering market risks, and the procurement of downstream steel mills has slowed down, so the coke supply - demand structure is expected to be loose. On the demand side, affected by the seasonal off - season, the overall demand in the steel market is poor, and the daily average hot metal output of blast furnaces is still expected to decline. After the previous replenishment, the inventories in steel mills are mostly at a reasonable level, and the procurement of coke is mainly based on rigid demand. It is expected that the short - term coke futures price will operate in an oscillating manner [1]. - Manganese Silicon: On Tuesday, the manganese silicon futures price oscillated weakly, with the main contract closing at 5760 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.89% compared to the previous day, and the position of the main contract decreased by 13,668 lots to 215,200 lots. The market prices of manganese silicon in various regions decreased. Recently, the overall trend of the black sector has been weak, and the prices of coking coal and coke have led the decline, causing the center of the manganese silicon futures price to move down. In terms of fundamentals, the price of manganese ore has been slightly adjusted down. On the supply - demand side, the weekly output of manganese silicon has been continuously decreasing, and the furnace - opening rate in Guangxi last week decreased by 5.4 percentage points to 27%. On the demand side, the steel tender price provides some support for the demand of manganese silicon, but the actual consumption at the terminal is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. In terms of inventory, the inventory of 63 sample enterprises has declined from a high level but is still relatively high year - on - year. Overall, the fundamental support is limited, and the market sentiment is weak. It is expected that the short - term manganese silicon will follow the black sector in a weak oscillating manner [1][3]. - Ferrosilicon: On Tuesday, the ferrosilicon futures price oscillated, with the main contract closing at 5552 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.07% compared to the previous day, and the position of the main contract increased by 15,954 lots to 245,600 lots. The aggregated prices of ferrosilicon in various regions decreased in some areas. Recently, the overall trend of the black sector has been weak, but the alloy has been relatively stable, and the center of the ferrosilicon futures price has basically remained flat compared to the previous day, with the position of the main contract increasing for three consecutive days. From a fundamental perspective, according to customs data, China's ferrosilicon exports in December increased by 7.6% month - on - month and 0.85% year - on - year, with an annual cumulative export of 377,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.15%. On the supply side, the overall output of ferrosilicon has been relatively stable recently, and the weekly output is at the lowest level in the same period in the past five years. On the demand side, during the steel tender period, attention should be paid to the procurement and stocking needs of steel mills, but the actual terminal consumption is limited. On the cost side, the raw material prices have remained stable recently, and the calculated production cost of ferrosilicon by the ferro - alloy online has remained the same week - on - week. In terms of inventory, the inventories of 60 ferrosilicon sample enterprises and the available days of ferrosilicon inventory in steel mills in December have both decreased month - on - month. Overall, the cost side is relatively stable, the marginal changes in the supply - demand level are limited, and the sentiment is affected by the overall trend of the black sector. It is expected that the short - term ferrosilicon will operate in a weak oscillating manner, and attention should be paid to changes in cost and production start - up [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the latest data and their环比 changes of contract spreads, basis, and spot prices for various black commodities, including steel (rebar and hot - rolled coil), iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon. It also includes data on profits and spreads between different varieties, such as rebar disk profit, long - process profit, short - process profit, volume - rebar spread, rebar - ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, coking coal - coke ratio, and double - silicon spread [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - 3.3.1 Main Contract Prices: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various black commodities from 2021 to 2026, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [6][7][8][10][11][13]. - 3.3.2 Main Contract Basis: The report shows the basis charts of the main contracts of various black commodities, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [15][16][20][22]. - 3.3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads: The report provides the inter - period contract spread charts of various black commodities, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [24][25][26][30][32][34][36]. - 3.3.4 Inter - variety Contract Spreads: The report shows the inter - variety contract spread charts of various black commodities, including the volume - rebar spread, rebar - ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, coking coal - coke ratio, and double - silicon spread [37][38][39][40]. - 3.3.5 Rebar Profits: The report presents the profit charts of rebar, including the disk profit of the main rebar contract, long - process calculated profit, and short - process calculated profit [42][46]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - The report introduces the members of the black research team, including Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, along with their positions, work experience, and professional qualifications [48][49].