燃料油东西价差走阔，关注套利船货量增长

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral; medium - term bearish [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral; medium - term bearish [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Cross - period: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The fuel oil market shows a pattern of strong in the East and weak in the West, and the widening of the East - West spread will open the arbitrage window, leading to an increase in arbitrage cargo volume, which has potential suppression on the Asia - Pacific and domestic markets [1] Group 3: Market Analysis Summary - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 1.72% at 2,512 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.23% at 3,078 yuan/ton [1] - The Iran situation is temporarily under control, with no impact on oil supply, the geopolitical premium has declined, and the cost - side drive for FU and LU prices is weak [1] - For high - sulfur fuel oil, in the short term, attention should be paid to the drag of the decline in the cracking spread in the U.S. Gulf on the Asia - Pacific and domestic markets and the potential increase in downstream refinery demand; the Iran situation still has uncertainties and may repeatedly disturb the market [1] - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the overall contradictions and drivers are limited. With the changes in the device status of Azul and Dangote refineries, the shipment volumes of Kuwait and Nigeria have rebounded, especially Kuwait's high shipment volume in January, which will bring some local pressure [1]