化工日报：弱现实强预期，资金情绪高涨-20260121

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current market situation is characterized by weak reality and strong expectations, with high capital sentiment [1]. - In the cost - end, the US has postponed military operations against Iran, causing crude oil prices to decline, but potential risks remain [1]. - For PX, the PXN was 331 dollars/ton (with a 0 - dollar/ton change compared to the previous period). The fundamentals are weakening, but the medium - term expectation is still good [1]. - For TA, the spot basis of the TA main contract is - 63 yuan/ton, and the PTA spot processing fee is 348 yuan/ton. In the short term, it is under pressure due to weak demand, but in the long - term, the processing fee is expected to gradually improve [1]. - The polyester start - up rate is 88.3% (a 2.5% decrease compared to the previous period). The polyester load will accelerate its decline as the Spring Festival maintenance plans are implemented [2]. - For PF, the spot production profit is 8 yuan/ton (a 24 - yuan/ton decrease compared to the previous period), and the market is mainly in a state of waiting and digestion [2]. - For PR, the bottle - chip spot processing fee is 552 yuan/ton, and the processing fee has been slightly repaired [2]. - In terms of strategies, for single - side trading, PX/PTA/PF/PR are bullish in the short - term under increased capital positions. In the medium - term, buy on dips after a pullback for hedging. For cross - variety trading, go long on PTA and short on MEG [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Price and Basis - Figures include the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [7][8][12] 3.2 Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures cover PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [14][18] 3.3 International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures include toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [20][22] 3.4 Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the PTA loads in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX loads in China and Asia [23][26][28] 3.5 Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures include PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [33][35][36] 3.6 Downstream Polyester Load - Figures cover filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing start - up rate, and filament profits [43][45][53] 3.7 PF Detailed Data - Figures include 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, original - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn start - up rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory inventory available days [67][71][74] 3.8 PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures cover polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip spread, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [84][86][91]