现货延续坚挺，基差快速走强

1. Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; no suggestions for inter - period and cross - variety investments [3] 2. Core View - The PDH device maintenance is being implemented, and the supply - demand structure has slightly improved. However, due to the easing of geopolitical disturbances, the oil price has fallen from its high. In the short term, the supply - demand fundamentals and the cost side resonate. Attention should be paid to the upstream PDH maintenance dynamics and the cost - side propane changes [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Key Data - Propylene: The closing price of the main propylene contract is 5963 yuan/ton (- 72), the spot price in East China is 6325 yuan/ton (+ 0), and in North China is 6155 yuan/ton (+ 10). The basis in East China is 362 yuan/ton (+ 72), and in Shandong is 192 yuan/ton (+ 82). The operating rate is 75% (- 1%), the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR is 247 US dollars/ton (- 5), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is 73 US dollars/ton (- 7), the import profit is - 294 yuan/ton (+ 44), and the in - plant inventory is 46270 tons (+ 1580) [1] - Propylene downstream: The operating rate of PP powder is 32% (- 5.84%), and the production profit is - 145 yuan/ton (- 20); for propylene oxide, the operating rate is 72% (- 1%), and the production profit is 186 yuan/ton (+ 70); for n - butanol, the operating rate is 87% (+ 4%), and the production profit is 672 yuan/ton (+ 44); for octanol, the operating rate is 94% (+ 5%), and the production profit is 696 yuan/ton (- 8); for acrylic acid, the operating rate is 82% (- 5%), and the production profit is 159 yuan/ton (+ 0); for acrylonitrile, the operating rate is 78% (- 1%), and the production profit is - 1470 yuan/ton (- 6); for phenol - acetone, the operating rate is 89% (+ 4%), and the production profit is - 919 yuan/ton (+ 0) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - Supply side: PDH device maintenance information continues to be released. Two 900,000 - ton PDH devices of Jinneng Phase II and Wanhua Penglai are under maintenance, and a 1,000,000 - ton/year PDH device of Fujian Meide is expected to stop for a week. The operating rate of PDH devices has dropped significantly, and the spot market is tight. The expectation of PDH device maintenance in South China is increasing, and the supply pressure in the propylene market is expected to be alleviated [2] - Demand side: The downstream rigid demand support continues. However, after the propylene price rises to a high level, the downstream demand may be limited due to profit compression. The operating rate of PP powder has dropped significantly due to device maintenance, while the PP devices of Jingbo Petrochemical and Lihezhixin have restarted, so the demand for propylene from the PP end still exists. After the price of propylene oxide rises and then falls rapidly, the PO end's willingness to purchase raw materials may decrease. The profit of butanol and octanol is good, and new devices are put into operation or the load is increased, so the support for propylene is strong [2] - Cost side: The international oil price has fallen from its high and is oscillating due to the easing of the Iranian geopolitical situation, and the propane price has declined. The cost support of propylene raw materials is gradually weakening. In addition, new factory - warehouse warehouse receipts (with a discount of 100) have appeared in South China, and the futures market needs to offer a more appropriate discount, so the futures market is under pressure [2] 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. Pay attention to the upstream PDH maintenance dynamics and the cost - side propane changes [3] - Inter - period: No suggestions [3] - Cross - variety: No suggestions [3] 3.4 Propylene Basis Structure - Relevant charts include the closing price of the main propylene contract, the propylene basis in East China, the propylene basis in Shandong, the price difference between propylene 03 - 04 contracts, the price difference between PL03 - 05 contracts, and the market prices of propylene in East China, Shandong, and South China [5][6][11][12][14] 3.5 Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Relevant charts involve the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR, propylene capacity utilization rate, propylene PDH production gross profit, propylene PDH capacity utilization rate, propylene MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate, the difference between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [5][18][20][30][31] 3.6 Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - Relevant charts cover the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [5][39][40][45][52][53][56][60] 3.7 Propylene Inventory - Relevant charts are the propylene in - plant inventory and the PP powder in - plant inventory [5][63]