微观数据表现相对稳定

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Unilateral strategy: Neutral [6] - Arbitrage strategy: Neutral [6] Group 2: Core Views - Micro data is relatively stable, social inventory accumulation is slow, and spot market supply pressure is low [1][5] - Zinc price valuation is still low, and downstream acceptance of price is relatively good [5] - Short - term market sentiment is weak, and zinc price shows a correction trend [5] - TC shows no upward trend, and comprehensive smelting faces losses, so supply - side pressure is unlikely to appear [5] - Long - term consumption is still promising, and inventory pressure is not high [5] Group 3: Key Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium: -$41.66/ton [2] - SMM Shanghai zinc spot price: -80 yuan/ton to 24340 yuan/ton, spot premium: 40 yuan/ton [2] - SMM Guangdong zinc spot price: -70 yuan/ton to 24350 yuan/ton, spot premium: 5 yuan/ton [2] - Tianjin zinc spot price: -80 yuan/ton to 24280 yuan/ton, spot premium: -20 yuan/ton [2] Futures - On 2026 - 01 - 20, SHFE zinc main contract opened at 24370 yuan/ton, closed at 24410 yuan/ton (-40 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day), with trading volume of 143056 lots and positions of 125893 lots. The highest price was 24515 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 24275 yuan/ton [3] Inventory - As of 2026 - 01 - 20, SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory: 12.20 million tons, a change of 0.35 million tons from the previous period [4] - As of 2026 - 01 - 20, LME zinc inventory: 112300 tons, a change of 7250 tons from the previous trading day [4]