需求持续偏弱，铜价跌破十万关口

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [6] - Options: Sell Put [6] 2. Core View of the Report - The imposition of a 25% tariff on certain semiconductors, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and derivatives by the White House last week affected the market's outlook for non - ferrous metals demand. The copper price was also impacted, but the decline was relatively limited. Given the high copper price, weak downstream demand, and obvious inventory accumulation, the copper price may enter a temporary shock pattern, with an expected shock range of 99,500 yuan/ton to 110,000 yuan/ton [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Futures Quotes - On January 20, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 101,020 yuan/ton and closed at 101,230 yuan/ton, a 0.05% increase from the previous trading day's close. During the night session, it opened at 101,020 yuan/ton and closed at 99,930 yuan/ton, a 1.29% decrease from the afternoon close [1]. 3.1.2 Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of 280 - 20 yuan/ton to the 2602 contract, with an average discount of 150 yuan, a 30 - yuan decrease from the previous day. The spot price range was 100,270 - 101,180 yuan/ton. The main contract of copper futures first rose and then fell in the morning. The current high inventory outflow will suppress the premium, and downstream buyers only purchase on - demand at high copper prices. The spot is expected to maintain a discount pattern [2]. 3.2 Important Information Summary 3.2.1 Macro and Geopolitical Aspects - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will adjust the trading margin ratio and daily price limit for copper, aluminum, gold, and silver futures contracts starting from the close of trading on January 22, 2026. Geopolitically, Trump mentioned alternative measures for tariffs if the current tools are restricted, and the US Supreme Court has not ruled on Trump's tariff - related matters. Canada's military has simulated a US military invasion [3]. 3.2.2 Mining End - In November 2025, Peru's copper production decreased by 11.2% year - on - year to 216,152 metric tons. From January to November, the cumulative copper production increased by 1.6% compared to the same period in 2024, reaching 2.5 million tons. It is expected that Peru's copper production will only slightly increase to about 2.8 million tons in 2025, showing long - term growth challenges [4]. 3.2.3 Smelting and Imports - In December 2025, China's imports of scrap copper were 238,976.87 tons, a 14.83% increase from the previous month and a 9.90% increase year - on - year. Japan and Thailand were the top two sources of imports [4]. 3.2.4 Consumption - Last week, the copper price fluctuated narrowly. Due to the approaching month - end, downstream consumption had limited improvement. Some processing enterprises rushed to export, and the market demand was relatively stable. Downstream enterprises mainly made on - demand purchases at low prices [5]. 3.2.5 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by 3,850 tons to 156,300 tons compared to the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 4,462 tons to 148,193 tons. On January 20, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 329,400 tons, a change of 8,500 tons from the previous week [5]. 3.3 Copper Price and Basis Data - The table provides data on SMM 1 copper (premium copper, flat - water copper, wet - process copper), Yangshan premium, LME (0 - 3), inventory (LME, SHFE, COMEX), warehouse receipts (SHFE, LME cancellation ratio), arbitrage (CU05 - CU02, CU03 - CU02), and import profit, as well as the Shanghai - London ratio (main contract) from different time points (January 21, 2026; January 20, 2026; January 14, 2026; December 22, 2025) [24][25][26][27]