棕榈油产量变化成为焦点，盘面震荡运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Neutral" [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The change in palm oil production has become the focus, and the market is oscillating. The prices of the three major oils oscillated yesterday. Due to the poor export data, the quotes of foreign merchants in the producing areas decreased with the market, and the bargaining space was large. As a result, the domestic import profit was significantly repaired, and the number of ship purchases increased. Palm oil continued to accumulate inventory, and there was a possibility of further inventory accumulation in the future. The domestic spot basis remained weak, and the futures would continue to be suppressed by the inventory accumulation in the producing areas and the domestic market, with limited upside potential. Attention should be paid to whether the seasonal production reduction in the producing areas is verified [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract yesterday was 8,748.00 yuan/ton, a change of +100 yuan, or +1.16%. The closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 8,032.00 yuan/ton, a change of +36.00 yuan, or +0.45%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 8,948.00 yuan/ton, a change of +46.00 yuan, or +0.52% [1] - Spot: The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,720.00 yuan/ton, a change of +90.00 yuan, or +1.04%, with a spot basis of P05 - 28.00, a change of -10.00 yuan. The spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,410.00 yuan/ton, a change of +30.00 yuan/ton, or +0.36%, with a spot basis of Y05 + 378.00, a change of -6.00 yuan. The spot price of fourth-grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,780.00 yuan/ton, a change of +30.00 yuan, or +0.31%, with a spot basis of OI05 + 832.00, a change of -16.00 yuan [1] 3.2 Market Information Summary - Import Prices: The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (February shipment) was 1,218 US dollars/ton, up 9 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (April shipment) was 1,155 US dollars/ton, up 16 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (February shipment) was 1,030 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (April shipment) was 1,010 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (March shipment) was 529 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (May shipment) was 537 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (February shipment) was 474 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West soybeans (February shipment) was 468 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (February shipment) was 447 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The import soybean premium quotes remained unchanged [2] - Export Volume: According to AmSpec, a Malaysian independent inspection agency, Malaysia's palm oil exports from January 1 - 20 were 892,428 tons, an increase of 8.64% compared to the 821,442 tons exported in the same period last month [2] - Soybean Processing: The arrival volume of imported soybeans in January decreased, and the weekly soybean crushing volume of oil mills dropped below 2 million tons. As of the end of the third week (January 17), the average soybean operating rate of domestic major soybean oil mills was 54.50%, a decrease of 1.57% from the previous week's 56.06%. The total soybean crushing volume of national oil mills was 1.9974 million tons, a decrease of 57,400 tons from the previous week's 2.0548 million tons. However, the expected soybean processing volume this week is expected to rise to 2.2824 million tons, with an operating rate of 62.27% [2] 3.3 Strategy - The recommended strategy is "Neutral" [4]