股债跷跷板下，国债期货全线收涨

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Affected by the stock market, the Political Bureau meeting signaled loose monetary policy, the LPR remained unchanged, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation continued while the uncertainty of global trade increased the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market oscillates between stable growth and loose expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [3] Summary by Related Catalogs I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's monthly CPI had a 0.20% month - on - month increase and 0.80% year - on - year increase, while the monthly PPI had a 0.20% month - on - month increase and - 1.90% year - on - year decrease [8] - Monthly economic indicators: The social financing scale was 442.12 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.05 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.47%; M2 year - on - year was 8.50%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.50% and a growth rate of 6.25%; the manufacturing PMI was 50.10%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.90% and a growth rate of 1.83% [9] - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index was 98.55, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.49 and a decline rate of 0.49%; the offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 6.9551, with a month - on - month increase of 0.001 and a growth rate of 0.02%; SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.48, with a month - on - month increase of 0.02 and a growth rate of 1.09%; DR007 was 1.49, with a month - on - month increase of 0.02 and a growth rate of 1.19%; R007 was 1.68, with a month - on - month increase of 0.17 and a growth rate of 11.44%; the 3 - month AAA - rated inter - bank certificate of deposit was 1.60, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.13%; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.13% [10] II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Relevant charts include the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures, the price change rates of various treasury bond futures varieties, the trend of the settled funds of various treasury bond futures varieties, the position - holding ratio of various treasury bond futures varieties, the net position - holding ratio of the top 20 of various treasury bond futures varieties, the long - short position - holding ratio of the top 20 of various treasury bond futures varieties, the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, and the issuance of treasury bonds [11][14][17][20] III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity - Relevant charts include the trend of Shibor rates, the trend of the maturity yields of AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit, the transaction statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the issuance of local government bonds [27][28] IV. Spread Overview - Relevant charts include the inter - term spread trend of various treasury bond futures varieties, the spread between the spot - bond term spread and the futures cross - variety spread (4TS - T), (2TS - TF), (2TF - T), (3T - TL), and (2TS - 3TF + T) [32][36][37] V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant charts include the implied interest rate and the treasury bond maturity yield of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TS main contract [39][43][48] VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant charts include the implied interest rate and the treasury bond maturity yield of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TF main contract [49][54] VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant charts include the implied yield and the treasury bond maturity yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the T main contract [55][56] VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant charts include the implied yield and the treasury bond maturity yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TL main contract [61][67]