欧美博弈升级，国内财政货币协同发力

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for commodities and stock index futures is overall neutral [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upward trend of the non - ferrous sector may slow down in the short term, but the long - term supply limitation remains unresolved with high certainty. The inflation narrative trend remains unchanged, and the internal and external economic situations show certain differentiation. Attention should be paid to the rotation possibility of low - valuation sectors in commodities [1][2][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Non - ferrous Sector: The "232" investigation has been finalized. Trump announced no new tariffs on key mineral imports for now but is planning a "price floor" mechanism. He also announced tariffs on goods from several European countries starting from 2026, with the rate increasing over time. The Fed Chair candidate turmoil has cooled down slightly. The CME will change the margin setting method for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium contracts, and the CMX - LME spread of copper has converged, so the short - term upward trend of the non - ferrous sector may slow down [1] - Inflation: The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized boosting consumption and "anti - involution". The central bank cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools, and the Ministry of Finance issued policies in multiple fields. Geopolitical tensions between Iran and Venezuela have tightened. Only economic recession and interest - rate hike expectations can cool down the inflation sentiment [2] - Internal and External Economic Differentiation: Overseas economic prosperity has been declining since October, but China's exports and new orders remain positive. China's foreign trade has accelerated recovery, with December exports increasing by 6.6% and imports by 5.7% year - on - year. China's GDP growth target of 5% in 2025 was achieved. The US manufacturing index has been below 50 for 10 consecutive months, and the non - farm payrolls in December were lower than expected [3] Commodity Investment Suggestions - Non - ferrous Metals: The long - term supply limitation remains, but the short - term upward trend may slow down [4] - Energy: The US will "distribute" Venezuelan oil, and Trump hopes to lower the oil price to $50 per barrel. Attention should be paid to the subsequent situation in Iran [4] - Chemicals: The "anti - involution" space of varieties such as methanol and PTA is worth attention [4] - Agricultural Products: Weather expectations and short - term pig diseases need to be monitored [4] - Black Metals: Domestic policy expectations and the possibility of low - valuation repair should be focused on [4] - Precious Metals: Opportunities to buy gold at low prices should be watched [4] Important News - China's 1 - month LPR has remained unchanged for eight consecutive months, with the 5 - year - plus LPR at 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR at 3% [7] - The Ministry of Finance extended the implementation period of the personal consumption loan fiscal subsidy policy to the end of 2026, and implemented or optimized subsidy policies for loans to small and medium - sized enterprises, equipment update, and service industry operators [7] - The National Development and Reform Commission will formulate an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand and study the establishment of a national - level merger and acquisition fund [7] - US Treasury Secretary Besent said that the narrative of Europe selling US Treasury bonds is "false" and will announce a new Fed chair as early as next week [7] - Powell attended a US Supreme Court hearing for Fed Governor Cook [7] - The EU will hold an emergency summit to respond to Trump's "island - seizure" tariffs [7] - New York gold futures and spot gold both exceeded $4700 per ounce, and spot silver exceeded $95 per ounce, all hitting new highs [7] - In commodity futures trading, the main lithium carbonate contract reached the daily limit, while coking coal and other varieties declined [7] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the trading margin ratio and price limit range of futures contracts such as copper, aluminum, gold, and silver [7]