聚烯烃日报：基本面支撑有限，短期跟随成本端波动-20260121

Report Industry Investment Rating - LLDPE is rated neutral, and PP is rated neutral [5] Core View of the Report - The fundamentals provide limited support, and in the short term, it follows the fluctuations of the cost side. The market has returned to fundamental trading, and it may be weak and volatile in the short term [1][5] Summary by Relevant Catalog Market News and Important Data - Price and Basis: The closing price of the L main contract is 6,640 yuan/ton (-27), and that of the PP main contract is 6,461 yuan/ton (-21). The spot price of LL in North China is 6,540 yuan/ton (-120), and in East China is 6,700 yuan/ton (-30). The spot price of PP in East China is 6,410 yuan/ton (+0). The basis of LL in North China is -100 yuan/ton (-93), in East China is 60 yuan/ton (-3), and that of PP in East China is -51 yuan/ton (+21) [1] - Upstream Supply: The PE operating rate is 81.6% (-2.1%), and the PP operating rate is 75.6% (+0.1%) [1] - Production Profit: The PE oil - based production profit is 186.2 yuan/ton (-103.7), the PP oil - based production profit is -373.8 yuan/ton (-103.7), and the PDH - based PP production profit is -628.5 yuan/ton (-46.1) [1] - Imports and Exports: The LL import profit is 122.9 yuan/ton (-117.3), the PP import profit is -406.7 yuan/ton (-153.0), and the PP export profit is -57.9 US dollars/ton (+3.5) [1] - Downstream Demand: The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 36.9% (-1.0%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 48.2% (-0.8%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 42.6% (-0.3%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 63.6% (+0.3%) [2] Market Analysis - PE: The geopolitical situation in Iran has eased, and international oil prices have entered a volatile phase after falling from high levels. After the macro - sentiment cools down, the market trades on the weak PE fundamentals. The supply is expected to increase steadily as there are few short - term planned maintenance of existing devices, some previously shut - down devices plan to resume production, and some full - density devices return to producing standard products. The demand shows off - season characteristics, with the overall downstream operating rate declining, and downstream factories may be less willing to replenish inventory at high prices. The inventory has been transferred from producers to middle - stream traders, but there is still pressure to reduce inventory under high supply [3] - PP: After the macro - sentiment is digested and due to the weak demand in the off - season, the market has corrected from high levels. The supply side has few new short - term maintenance, but the PDH is in deep loss, and some devices have maintenance expectations. The demand was boosted during the previous price increase as downstream enterprises replenished inventory, but now the downstream is in the off - season, and the resistance to high prices has increased, with limited new orders. The inventory of the upstream and middle - stream has decreased, but the overall inventory level is still high. The cost of oil - based production has decreased, while the PDH - based cost still provides support [4] Strategy - Unilateral: LLDPE and PP are both rated neutral. The market may be weak and volatile in the short term [5] - Inter - period: No strategy is provided [5] - Inter - variety: No strategy is provided [5]