申万期货品种策略日报：双焦（JM&J）-20260121

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information found Group 2: Core View of the Report - The main contracts of coking coal and coke showed weak performance in the night session yesterday, with a slight increase in the total open interest of coking coal. Steel Union data indicates that last week, the output of the five major steel products remained basically flat, the total inventory decreased slightly, the apparent demand increased, and the molten iron output decreased slightly. The profitability of sample steel mills increased. The expected resumption of molten iron production in January and the seasonal increase in downstream pre - festival rigid demand for restocking can support coal prices, so the short - term decline of the futures market is limited. Future focus should be on the supply trend of coking coal, changes in molten iron output, and the downstream restocking rhythm [1] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Futures Market Data - Closing Prices and Changes: For coking coal, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 1365.5, 1124.0, and 1203.5 respectively, with declines of - 49.0, - 50.5, and - 50.5 compared to the day before, and decline rates of - 3.46%, - 4.30%, and - 4.03% respectively. For coke, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 1860.0, 1673.5, and 1748.5 respectively, with declines of - 21.5, - 47.5, and - 50.0 compared to the day before, and decline rates of - 1.14%, - 2.76%, and - 2.78% respectively [1] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volumes of coking coal for January, May, and September contracts were 2200, 1088191, and 53740 respectively, and the open interests were 2444, 532732, and 78390 respectively, with increases in open interest of 808, 29998, and 0 respectively. For coke, the trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 55, 22017, and 778 respectively, and the open interests were 67, 38429, and 1493 respectively, with increases in open interest of 32, 792, and 182 respectively [1] - Price Spreads: For coking coal, the current price spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 240, - 79.5, and - 160.5 respectively, with changes of 306, 2.5, and - 308.5 respectively. For coke, the current price spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 160.5, - 77.5, and - 83 respectively, with changes of 429.5, 2, and - 431.5 respectively [1] Spot Market Data - Spot Prices: The current prices of Mongolian - 5 main coking coal (port pick - up price), low - sulfur main coking coal (Linfen ex - factory price), low - sulfur main coking coal (Taiyuan rail - side price), Tangshan first - grade coke, Jinzhong quasi - first - grade coke, and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade coke ex - warehouse price were 1234, 1620, 1530, 1800, 1280, and 1450 respectively. The change in the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade coke ex - warehouse price was - 20, while the others remained unchanged [1] Policy Information - The Ministry of Natural Resources and the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development issued measures to support urban renewal. Using existing land and real - estate resources for industries supported by the state can enjoy a transitional policy of not changing the land - use subject and planning conditions for up to 5 years [1]