Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2026-01-21 06:33Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the shipbuilding industry, with a focus on the recovery of new orders in the second half of 2025, driven by the stabilization of second-hand ship prices ahead of new ship prices [2][3]. Core Insights - The second-hand ship prices have stabilized before new ship prices, with a notable increase in new orders in the latter half of 2025 [2]. - As of the end of 2025, the newbuilding price index stands at 184.65 points, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 2.4%, while the second-hand price index is at 191.07 points, showing an increase of 8.6% year-on-year [2][53]. - The global shipbuilding orderbook has reached 395 million DWT, marking a 37% year-on-year increase, with significant contributions from various ship types [2][60]. - The report highlights that the demand side is gradually strengthening, indicating a long-term upward trend in the shipbuilding cycle [50]. Summary by Sections Ship Price Trends - The new ship price index decreased by 2.4% year-on-year, while the second-hand ship price index increased by 8.6% year-on-year [53][57]. - Specific new ship price indices for container ships, oil tankers, bulk carriers, and LNG ships have shown declines ranging from 3% to 5% [57]. Order Backlog - The global shipbuilding orderbook has increased to 395 million DWT, with container ships, LNG ships, bulk carriers, oil tankers, and other vessels contributing to this growth [60]. - The orderbook's capacity ratio remains low, with only 17.1% of the total capacity accounted for by the orderbook, indicating potential for future growth [60]. New Orders Analysis - In 2025, the total new orders amounted to 56.43 million CGT, a decrease of 27% year-on-year, with container ships making up the largest share at 41% [61]. - The total value of new orders was $18.13 billion, reflecting a 21% year-on-year decline, with container ships again leading in terms of order value [64]. Country-Specific Insights - China remains the dominant player in new orders, accounting for 69% of the total deadweight tonnage and 50% of the total order value in 2025 [68]. - South Korea has seen an increase in its share of new orders, indicating a shift in competitive dynamics within the industry [68]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the recovery in new orders is expected to accelerate due to rising charter rates and increased optimism among shipowners regarding future market conditions [22][24]. - The container shipping segment is projected to continue its growth trajectory, with sustained demand for new vessels [25][28].