聚酯数据日报-20260121

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is optimistic about the medium - term supply - demand pattern of PTA, weakening the impact of short - term polyester production cuts, leading to a rise in PTA prices. However, the maintenance of a 750,000 - ton polyester plant has a negative impact on the PTA spot basis [2]. - The PX market remains strong, driven by speculative funds and improved production economics. Korean factories plan to increase production in January but are limited by some reformer maintenance. Domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, but the decline in domestic demand and polyester factory production cuts have a negative feedback on PTA [2]. - Overseas MEG plant maintenance plans are increasing, but with the continuous decline of coal prices and the increase in new plant production, the MEG price lacks effective support. However, it may be supported by domestic policies in the context of carbon neutrality [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data Changes - INE Crude Oil: The price dropped from 437.4 yuan/barrel on January 19, 2026, to 437.0 yuan/barrel on January 20, 2026, a decrease of 0.40 yuan/barrel [2]. - PTA - SC: The price increased from 1851.4 yuan/ton to 1968.3 yuan/ton, a rise of 116.91 yuan/ton; the PTA/SC ratio rose from 1.5824 to 1.6198, an increase of 0.0373 [2]. - PTA: The main - contract futures price increased from 5030 yuan/ton to 5144 yuan/ton, a rise of 114.0 yuan/ton; the spot - market processing margin increased from 321.4 yuan/ton to 324.4 yuan/ton, a rise of 3.0 yuan/ton; the on - paper processing margin increased from 381.4 yuan/ton to 498.4 yuan/ton, a rise of 117.0 yuan/ton [2]. - MEG: The main - contract futures price dropped from 3755 yuan/ton to 3674 yuan/ton, a decrease of 81.0 yuan/ton; the main - contract basis increased from - 120 to - 113, a rise of 7.0 [2]. 3.2 Industry Chain Operating Conditions - PX Operating Rate: Remained at 85.82% [2]. - PTA Operating Rate: Remained at 75.63% [2]. - MEG Operating Rate: Dropped from 60.58% to 60.49%, a decrease of 0.09% [2]. - Polyester Load: Dropped from 85.83% to 84.69%, a decrease of 1.14% [2]. 3.3 Product Sales Conditions - Polyester Filament: The sales rate of POY, FDY, and DTY remained at 0.0% in price change; the sales rate of polyester filament decreased from 50% to 46%, a decrease of 4% [2]. - Polyester Staple Fiber: The price of 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber remained unchanged; the sales rate increased from 57% to 92%, a rise of 35% [2]. - Polyester Chip: The price of semi - bright polyester chips remained unchanged; the sales rate increased from 84% to 174%, a rise of 90% [2]. 3.4 Device Maintenance Dynamics - A 3.6 - million - ton PTA plant in East China is currently reducing its load and is expected to start planned maintenance tomorrow. A 1.25 - million - ton PTA plant in South China is expected to shut down in the next two days and is initially expected to restart in early March [2].