黑色金属数据日报-20260121

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The spot market for steel products has cooled down, and attention should be paid to basis trading opportunities. The futures prices were weak on Tuesday, and the spot trading volume decreased. The impact of weather on the demand for building materials is becoming more obvious, and the seasonal drop in building material demand is expected to continue. The support from demand for the market is relatively limited. However, during the off - season around the Spring Festival, the price pressure is not large. At present, steel mills have profits and the willingness to resume production, while traders are not very willing to conduct open - position winter storage and prefer basis trading. The probability of an increase in hot metal production is rising, and there is support at low prices. The market has abundant funds but cautious confidence, and there are opportunities for rolling cash - and - carry arbitrage in hot - rolled coils [3]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese have been oscillating recently. The supply side has occasional rumors of fluctuations. The demand side is weak as steel prices are under pressure, steel mill profits are poor, and the pressure to adjust hot metal production downward is high. The overall demand is difficult to improve in the short term. The supply side has high production despite poor profits of alloy plants, and the medium - term over - supply pressure remains. Although there are policy benefits and cost support, the market is likely to fall under pressure [3]. - The spot market for coking coal and coke has cooled down. The first round of coke price increase has been shelved. The market's purchasing willingness has weakened, and the auction failure rate has increased. The futures prices of coking coal and coke have accelerated their decline, breaking through important supports. The market is in the off - season, and the industrial data is weak. Although the steel apparent consumption improved last week, the market is unlikely to have unexpected performance. The coal mine supply continues to recover, and the downstream is in the pre - Spring Festival replenishment period. However, the market is pessimistic about the coking coal 05 contract, and the futures price may gradually move towards the coking coal long - term contract cost pricing [5]. - Iron ore prices are mainly oscillating. The steel mill accident over the weekend may affect hot metal production for a long time. The iron ore valuation is currently moderately high. Under the influence of supply and demand, the port inventory of iron ore continues to rise, and the price is under pressure. The steel apparent consumption has slightly declined, and the overall iron element contradiction is still accumulating. There are opportunities to short after a rebound [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Closing Prices and Changes: On January 20, for far - month contracts, the closing prices of RB2610, HC2610, 12609, J2609, and JM2609 were 3159.00 yuan/ton, 3295.00 yuan/ton, 771.50 yuan/ton, 1748.50 yuan/ton, and 1203.50 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 38.00 yuan/ton, - 34.00 yuan/ton, - 8.00 yuan/ton, - 60.50 yuan/ton, and - 55.00 yuan/ton, and percentage changes of - 1.19%, - 1.02%, - 1.03%, - 3.34%, and - 4.37% respectively. For near - month contracts (main contracts), the closing prices of RB2605, HC2605, 12605, J2605, and JM2605 were 3111.00 yuan/ton, 3276.00 yuan/ton, 789.50 yuan/ton, 1673.50 yuan/ton, and 1124.00 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 37.00 yuan/ton, - 32.00 yuan/ton, - 8.00 yuan/ton, - 61.50 yuan/ton, and - 53.00 yuan/ton, and percentage changes of - 1.18%, - 0.97%, - 1.00%, - 3.54%, and - 4.50% respectively [1]. - Spread and Ratio: On January 20, the spread between HC2605 - 2610 was - 19.00 yuan/ton, with a change of 1.00 yuan/ton; the spread between RB2605 - 2610 was - 48.00 yuan/ton, with a change of 0.00 yuan/ton. The spread between J2605 - 2609 was 18.00 yuan/ton, with a change of 0.50 yuan/ton; the spread between JM2605 - 2609 was - 79.50 yuan/ton, with a change of 0.00 yuan/ton. The hot - rolled coil to rebar spread was 165.00 yuan/ton, with a change of 6.00 yuan/ton; the rebar to iron ore ratio was 3.94, with a change of - 0.01; the coking coal to coke ratio was 1.49, with a change of 0.02; the rebar futures profit was - 86.18 yuan/ton, with a change of 2.18 yuan/ton; the coking futures profit was 178.58 yuan/ton, with a change of 19.67 yuan/ton [1]. Spot Market - Spot Prices and Changes: On January 20, the spot prices of Shanghai rebar, Tianjin rebar, and Guangzhou rebar were 3270.00 yuan/ton, 3140.00 yuan/ton, and 3440.00 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 10.00 yuan/ton, - 20.00 yuan/ton, and - 10.00 yuan/ton. The spot price of Tangshan billet was 2930.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 20.00 yuan/ton, and the Platts Index was 103.55, with a change of - 0.90. The spot prices of Shanghai hot - rolled coil, Hangzhou hot - rolled coil, and Guangzhou hot - rolled coil were 3250.00 yuan/ton, 3300.00 yuan/ton, and 3260.00 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 10.00 yuan/ton, - 10.00 yuan/ton, and - 20.00 yuan/ton. The billet - to - finished product spread was 340.00 yuan/ton, with a change of 10.00 yuan/ton. The spot prices of Qingdao Port Super Special Fines, Ganqimao Du Coking Concentrate, and Qingdao Port PB were 677.00 yuan/ton, 1235.00 yuan/ton, and 793.00 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 10.00 yuan/ton, 0.00 yuan/ton, and - 17.00 yuan/ton [1]. - Basis and Changes: On January 20, the basis of HC main contract, RB main contract, 12605 main contract, J main contract, and JM main contract were - 26.00 yuan/ton, 159.00 yuan/ton, 20.00 yuan/ton, - 100.87 yuan/ton, and 141.00 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 13.00 yuan/ton, 19.00 yuan/ton, 0.00 yuan/ton, - 47.50 yuan/ton, and 50.50 yuan/ton [1]. Investment Strategies - For steel products, use a range - bound trading strategy for single - side trading, conduct rolling cash - and - carry arbitrage in hot - rolled coils, or use option strategies as an auxiliary [7]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, industrial customers should conduct hedging when prices are high [7]. - For coking coal and coke, stop loss for previous long positions as the prices have broken through important supports [7].