锂价强势突破，期现共振

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The battery-grade lithium carbonate market has seen a significant price increase, with spot prices rising by 4,000 CNY to 152,500 CNY per ton, rebounding over 28% from the year's low. Futures contracts also experienced a peak increase of 7.47%, reaching 160,200 CNY per ton, with trading volumes hitting recent highs. This price surge is attributed to improved fundamentals and a shift in market sentiment from cautiousness to proactive stocking [5]. - The demand side indicates that energy storage has become the primary growth driver, with a rapid increase in demand for energy storage systems due to the global energy transition and the ongoing "dual carbon" goals. The consumption of lithium resources in the energy storage sector is expected to enter a long-term growth phase, supported by the construction of new power systems and increasing economic viability of storage solutions [6]. - On the supply side, there is a significant lack of elasticity in lithium carbonate production. Domestic production is constrained by seasonal factors and stricter environmental regulations, while international supply is hindered by policy changes and infrastructure bottlenecks. This rigid supply characteristic is likely to push lithium prices higher [8]. - The profit distribution within the lithium industry chain is shifting towards upstream producers, particularly those with high-quality lithium resources. These companies are expected to benefit significantly from the current price upcycle, while midstream and downstream sectors may face pressure from rising raw material costs [9]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - Over the past 12 months, the industry has shown strong performance with relative returns of 17.16% over one month, 27.22% over three months, and 85.11% over twelve months, alongside absolute returns of 20.46%, 31.2%, and 108.33% respectively [2]. Investment Highlights - The dual growth drivers of energy storage and electric vehicle markets are expected to sustain high demand for lithium resources, creating a robust foundation for price increases and industry growth [6]. - Key companies to watch in the lithium sector include Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, Zhongjin Lingnan, Yongxing Materials, and Dazhong Mining, as they are well-positioned to benefit from the industry's favorable conditions [9].