绝对收益产品及策略周报(260112-260116):上周461只固收+基金创新高-20260121
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2026-01-21 07:09

Group 1: Fixed Income + Product Performance Tracking - As of January 16, 2026, the total scale of fixed income + funds in the market reached 21,743.24 billion, with 1,152 products, of which 461 achieved historical net value highs last week [2][19] - The median performance of various fund types for the week of January 12-16, 2026, was as follows: mixed bond type I (0.13%), mixed bond type II (0.21%), partially bond mixed type (0.28%), flexible allocation type (0.14%), bond type FOF (0.21%), and mixed type FOF (0.34%) [2][12] - The median returns for conservative, stable, and aggressive funds were 0.16%, 0.24%, and 0.25%, respectively [2][12] Group 2: Major Asset Allocation and Industry ETF Rotation Strategy Tracking - The macro environment forecast for Q1 2026 indicates a "Slowdown," with the returns for the CSI 300, national bond total wealth index, and AU9999 contract as of January 16 being 2.20%, 0.03%, and 6.10%, respectively [3][23] - Recommended industry ETFs for January 2026 include: Guotai CSI Coal ETF, Guotai CSI Steel ETF, Guotai CSI All-Share Securities Company ETF, and Huabao CSI Bank ETF [3][23] - The combined return for the recommended ETFs last week was -2.65%, with a cumulative return of -0.36% for January [3][23] Group 3: Absolute Return Strategy Performance Tracking - The macro-timing driven stock-bond 20/80 rebalancing strategy had a return of -0.04% last week, with a year-to-date (YTD) return of 0.51% [4] - The small-cap value style within the stock-bond 20/80 combination showed the best performance with a YTD return of 1.64% [4] - The cumulative return for the small-cap value combination based on a macro momentum model was 2.43% [4]