Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2026-01-21 07:20Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Yaxia Hydropower Project, with an expected investment of over RMB 2 trillion, will significantly boost the demand for high - end and large - scale construction machinery, serving as a key investment catalyst for the construction machinery industry [1][5][7] - The 14th Five - Year Plan sets the tone for the industry, promoting original innovation and the development of strategic emerging industries. The equipment replacement demand in the machinery industry is expected to be gradually released, benefiting cyclical sectors such as construction machinery [1][12] - China's construction machinery export data has been growing rapidly. The Chinese market is at a cyclical inflection point, and exports are expected to rise from $234 billion in 2024 to $570 billion in 2030. Domestic companies' overseas revenue has increased significantly [1][17][22] - The CSI Construction Machinery Theme Index allows for one - click allocation of core construction machinery assets. It has high long - term returns, high volatility, and significant event - driven characteristics. The performance of its constituent stocks is expected to continue to improve [1][34][56] - The Huaxia CSI Construction Machinery ETF closely tracks the CSI Construction Machinery Theme Index, aiming to minimize tracking deviation and error [1][68] Summary by Directory 1. The 14th Five - Year Plan Sets the Tone for the Industry, and Domestic Brands Accelerate Overseas Expansion 1.1 The Yaxia Hydropower Project Starts, and Trillion - Dollar Investment Creates a Century - Long Project - The Yaxia Hydropower Project officially started in 2025. Its construction plan can be traced back to 2007, and it entered the implementation phase in 2024 [5] - Compared with the Three Gorges Project, the Yaxia Hydropower Project may have a dynamic investment of over RMB 2 trillion, and most of the investment will be used for power station construction and power transmission projects [7][9] 1.2 The 14th Five - Year Plan Sets the Tone for the Industry, and the Domestic and Overseas Sales of Excavators Continue to Improve Synchronously - The 14th Five - Year Plan emphasizes original innovation and the development of strategic emerging industries. The equipment replacement demand in the machinery industry is expected to be released, benefiting cyclical sectors [12] - In November 2025, the sales of various excavators reached 20,027 units, a year - on - year increase of 13.90%. Domestic sales increased by 9.11% year - on - year, and exports increased by 18.84% year - on - year, indicating the recovery of the industry [13] 1.3 The Global Construction Machinery Market is Vast, and China's Export Data Shows High Growth - The global construction machinery market is expected to grow from $213.5 billion in 2024 to $296.1 billion in 2030. The Chinese market is at a cyclical inflection point, expected to rise from $234 billion in 2024 to $570 billion in 2030 [17] - The global excavator market is expected to reach $92.8 billion in 2030. In China, excavators will lead the industry recovery with a growth rate of 16.8% [17] - Overseas markets account for nearly 90% of the global construction machinery market. China's construction machinery export volume has increased from $18.894 billion in 2020 to $52.829 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 29.33% [22] 1.4 The Construction Machinery Cycle Reaches the Bottom and Rebounds, and Domestic Brands Accelerate Overseas Expansion - The excavator industry has experienced two cycles and is now in a new upward cycle. In 2024, the annual sales volume increased by 3.1% year - on - year, and from January to November 2025, the growth rate expanded to 16.7% [24] - The overseas revenue of the four major domestic construction machinery manufacturers has increased significantly. In 2024, the overseas revenue ratios of Sany Heavy Industry and Zoomlion exceeded 50% [27] - International giants still dominate the global market. Chinese construction machinery manufacturers such as XCMG, Sany Heavy Industry, and Zoomlion still have room for improvement in global market share [29] 2. The CSI Construction Machinery Theme Index: One - Click Allocation of Core Construction Machinery Assets 2.1 Index Compilation: Selecting Core Leaders in the Construction Machinery Industry - The CSI Construction Machinery Theme Index was released on September 27, 2021, with a base date of June 30, 2016. It selects 50 representative listed companies in the construction machinery field as samples to reflect the overall performance of construction machinery - related stocks [34] - The index samples are adjusted semi - annually, on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December each year [36] 2.2 Industry Market Value Characteristics: High Concentration in the Construction Machinery Sector, with Market Value Structure Dominated by Leading Companies - As of January 6, 2026, the index has 50 constituent stocks, with an average total market value of RMB 28.131 billion. Five stocks have a market value of over RMB 100 billion [37] - The top ten constituent stocks of the index account for 72.55% of the total weight. The top three stocks by weight are XCMG, Sany Heavy Industry, and Weichai Power [43] - The index focuses on the construction machinery, auto parts, and special equipment sectors, with a combined proportion of over 87%. The construction machinery industry has the highest weight, at 61.99% [46] 2.3 High Elasticity, Offensive Nature, and Long - Term Allocation Value - In the rising market, the CSI Construction Machinery Index has strong explosive power. For example, from January 31 to April 19, 2019, its cumulative return was 44.07%, significantly higher than that of broad - based indices [50] - Since the base date, the cumulative return of the index has reached 153.95%, and the annualized return is 10.60%, far exceeding that of major broad - based indices. It has high volatility and a large maximum drawdown, indicating its high - elasticity offensive characteristics [56] - The index shows a pattern of leading in the up - cycle and adjusting in the down - cycle. In 2019 and 2025, its annual returns were significantly higher than those of broad - based indices [62] 2.4 High - Level Operation Supported by Positive Expectations, Highlighting the Attention of Sector Allocation - As of January 5, 2026, the P/E ratio of the CSI Construction Machinery Index was 24.13, with a historical quantile of 79.59%, and the P/B ratio was 2.26, with a historical quantile of 94.49%. The valuation is at a relatively high level [65] - The market's positive expectations for the industry have been reflected in the valuation, highlighting the long - term certainty of sector allocation [65] 3. Huaxia CSI Construction Machinery ETF - The Huaxia CSI Construction Machinery ETF (fund code: 515970) closely tracks the CSI Construction Machinery Theme Index, aiming to minimize tracking deviation and error. It started raising funds on January 19, 2026, and ended on January 30, 2026, with Wang Xinwei as the fund manager [68]