数据中心供配电设备行业跟踪：台积电2025Q4营收同比增长，DRAM价格持续上涨

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The data center industry has become the core incremental application scenario for the power equipment sector, directly driving demand growth and technological iteration in power equipment [5][6] - The report emphasizes the need to incorporate multi-dimensional indicators from the AI industry to accurately gauge the demand for power distribution equipment in data centers, given the capital expenditure scale and long investment return cycles [5][6] - Key indicators are constructed from three aspects: demand side (capital expenditure from leading cloud vendors), supply chain (GPU supply tracking), and AI application development [5][6] Summary by Sections Demand Side - Capital expenditure from overseas cloud vendors reached $99.617 billion in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 80.39% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.54% [7] - Alibaba's capital expenditure was 31.5 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 80.10% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 18.55% [12] - Tencent's capital expenditure was 13 billion yuan, down 24.05% year-on-year and 32.05% quarter-on-quarter [12] Supply Chain - NVIDIA's total revenue in Q3 2025 was $57.006 billion, with data center product revenue reaching $51.215 billion, marking a historical peak with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 24.62% and a year-on-year growth of 66.44% [19] - TSMC's revenue in December 2025 was 335 billion NTD, a year-on-year increase of 20.4% [24] - DRAM spot prices surged from $27.14 on November 17, 2025, to $66.50 by January 16, 2026, reflecting a more than 145% increase over two months [27] Application Side - The number of AI models is steadily increasing, with API call volumes reaching 7.65 trillion tokens from January 5 to January 12, 2026, an increase of 18.97% [38] - The price of tokens for models scoring over 40 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index dropped by over 50% in Q3 2025 [47]