航运衍生品数据日报-20260121

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current EC2602 contract is supported by pre - holiday shipments, while the BC2604 contract declines due to negotiation expectations. The core drivers are the resumption of Red Sea routes led by Maersk, combined with a capacity growth rate exceeding demand. The long - term pressure of oversupply remains unchanged, and short - term exports of photovoltaic and battery products provide marginal support. In the short term, the market is volatile, and the far - month contracts are suppressed by the resumption expectations. It's necessary to closely monitor the route recovery rhythm and shipping company pricing to seize interval opportunities [9]. - The strategy is to focus on the opportunity of short - allocating off - season contracts [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - The present value of the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) comprehensive index is 1574, with a previous value of 1647 and a decline of 4.45%. The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) has a present value of 1210, a previous value not clearly given in a comparable way, and an increase of 1.25%. For specific routes, SCFI - US West has a present value of 2194, down 1.08% from the previous value of 2218; SCFIS - US West is 1305, down 1.36% from 1323; SCFI - US East is 3163, up 1.12% from 3128; SCFI - Northwest Europe is 1676, down 2.50% from 1719; SCFIS - Northwest Europe is 1954, down 0.10% from 1956; and SCFI - Mediterranean is 2983, down 7.70% from 3232 [6]. 3.2 EC Spot Price - OCEAN Alliance: CMA CGM quotes 3693/FEU with relatively firm prices. COSCO Shipping quotes 3325/FEU. Evergreen Marine quotes 3030 - 3130/FEU, about 400 lower than before. Orient Overseas quotes 2880/FEU, 150 lower than before. The overall FAK central range is about 32700 - 3300/FEU. - GEMINI Alliance: Maersk's Week 4 (1.20 - 1.26) price is 1695/2730 (20'/40'), dropping to 1510/2420 in Week 5, and non - European base rates are as low as 2400/FEU. Hapag - Lloyd quotes 1585/2535 (20'/40'), with the February quote remaining unchanged. The overall FAK central range is about 2400 - 2700/FEU. - PREMIER Alliance + MSC: MSC quotes 1580/2640 (20'/40'). Ocean Network Express (ONE) quotes 1680/2635 (20'/40'), with the same price in February. Yang Ming Marine Transport quotes about 2600/FEU with relatively stable prices. HMM quotes 1433/2436 (20'/40') with a relatively low price. The overall FAK central range is about 2400 - 2650/FEU [7]. 3.3 Market News - Trump announced that starting from February 1st, he will impose a 10% tariff on Denmark, the UK, France, Germany, Sweden, Finland, the Netherlands, and Norway due to disputes over Greenland with relevant countries, and the tariff will be raised to 25% on June 1st. - Trump's advisors are impatient with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's objections and continue to advance the second stage of the "Gaza Peace Plan". Netanyahu issued a sharply worded statement opposing the list of members of the Gaza "Implementation Committee" released by the White House on Friday. - The new Sokhna container terminal in Egypt is put into operation, with Hutchison Ports, CMA CGM, and COSCO Shipping as the core shareholders. The support from the Ocean Alliance is expected to increase, and RSCT No.1 has become the most important and newly - launched modern large - scale container terminal on the Red Sea side of Egypt [6].