土地市场月度跟踪报告（2025年12月）：2025全年核心30城宅地成交建面同比-9%，成交均价同比+6%-20260121

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Increase" for the real estate sector [6] Core Insights - In 2025, the total area of residential land transactions in 100 cities decreased by 14.2% year-on-year, while the average transaction price increased by 3.4% [1][21] - The core 30 cities accounted for 43% of the total area of residential land transactions and 72% of the total transaction value in 100 cities [4][107] - The top three companies in terms of new land reserve value in 2025 were China Overseas Land & Investment (CNY 99.1 billion), China Resources Land (CNY 79.1 billion), and Poly Developments (CNY 78.7 billion) [2][95] Summary by Sections Land Supply and Demand - In 2025, the total area of land transactions in 100 cities was 1.375 billion square meters, down 8.2% year-on-year [11] - The total area of residential land transactions in 100 cities was 320 million square meters, down 14.2% year-on-year [21] - The supply of residential land in first-tier cities decreased by 31.2% year-on-year, while the transaction area decreased by 29.3% [31] Land Transaction Prices - The average transaction price of residential land in 100 cities was CNY 5,605 per square meter, up 3.4% year-on-year [59] - The average transaction price in first-tier cities was CNY 35,203 per square meter, up 18.6% year-on-year [70] Top 50 Real Estate Companies - The top 50 real estate companies had a total new land reserve value of CNY 932.8 billion in 2025, an increase of 5.2% year-on-year [86] - The total new land reserve area for these companies was 6.984 million square meters, down 3.4% year-on-year [92] Core 30 Cities Land Transaction Situation - In 2025, the core 30 cities had a total of 1.37 billion square meters of residential land transactions, down 8.7% year-on-year [102] - The average transaction price in these cities was CNY 9,404 per square meter, up 6.4% year-on-year [102] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong comprehensive development capabilities and high credit advantages, such as China Merchants Shekou and China Jinmao [121][122] - It also highlights the potential of public REITs and companies with rich operational resources, recommending China Resources Land and Shanghai Lingang [122] - The long-term growth potential of the property service industry is emphasized, with recommendations for companies like China Merchants Jiyu and China Resources Vientiane Life [122]