宏观固收周报：结构性降息落地与格陵兰岛局势升级-20260121

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Structural Interest Rate Cut and Escalation of Greenland Situation - Macroeconomic Fixed Income Weekly Report (20260112 - 20260118)" [5] - Analyst: Zhang Hesheng [2] - Date: January 21, 2026 [2] Group 2: Market Performance Stock Markets - US stock market: The three major US stock indexes declined. The Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average changed by -0.66%, -0.38%, and -0.29% respectively. The NASDAQ China Technology Index changed by 3.70% [5]. - Hong Kong stock market: The Hang Seng Index rose by 2.34% [5]. - A-share market: Large-cap stocks declined while small-cap stocks rose. The Wind All A Index changed by 0.49%. Among them, the CSI A100 and CSI 300 declined by -0.29% and -0.57% respectively, while the CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, and Wind Microcap stocks rose by 2.18%, 1.27%, 0.94%, and 1.96% respectively [7]. - Sector performance: In the Shanghai market, blue-chip stocks declined while growth stocks rose. The Shanghai Composite 50 declined by -1.74%, and the STAR 50 rose by 2.58%. In the Shenzhen market, both blue-chip and growth stocks rose. The Shenzhen Component 100 rose by 0.39%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 1.00%. The Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index rose by 1.58% [7]. - Industry performance: Among the 30 CITIC industries, 10 industries rose, and 20 industries declined. The leading industries were computer, electronics, media, and non-ferrous metals, with a weekly increase of more than 3.0% [7]. Bond Markets - Chinese government bonds: Most maturity yields of Chinese government bonds declined. The 10-year government bond futures main contract rose by 0.26% compared to January 9, 2026. The yield of the 10-year active government bond declined by 3.58 BP to 1.8424% compared to January 9, 2026 [8]. - US Treasury bonds: US Treasury bond yields increased overall. As of January 16, 2026, the 10-year US Treasury bond yield changed by 6 BP to 4.24% compared to January 9, 2026 [9]. Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar strengthened, and the RMB strengthened against the US dollar. The US dollar index increased by 0.23%. The US dollar against the euro, pound, and yen changed by 0.30%, 0.20%, and 0.12% respectively. The US dollar against the offshore RMB exchange rate declined by 0.12% to 6.9674 as of January 16, 2026, and the US dollar against the onshore RMB exchange rate declined by 0.19% to 6.9690 as of January 16, 2026 [10]. Commodity Market - Gold prices rose. The London gold spot price rose by 2.61% to $4611.05 per ounce, and the COMEX gold futures price rose by 2.62% to $4590.00 per ounce. The domestic gold price also rose. The Shanghai gold spot rose by 2.90% to 1,032.63 yuan per gram, and the futures rose by 4.10% to 1,032.32 yuan per gram [12]. Group 3: Policy Analysis Structural Interest Rate Cut - On January 15, 2026, the central bank lowered the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points. The one-year interest rate of various re-loans was lowered from the current 1.5% to 1.25%, and the interest rates of other maturity levels were adjusted accordingly [12]. - The central bank improved the structural tools and increased support. For example, it increased the quota of re-loans for scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation by 400 billion yuan, the quota of re-loans to support agriculture and small businesses by 500 billion yuan, and established a re-loan for private enterprises under the re-loans to support agriculture and small businesses, with a quota of 1 trillion yuan [12]. Future Policy Space - There is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in 2026. The average legal deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions is currently 6.3%, leaving room for reserve requirement ratio cuts [13]. - Regarding interest rate cuts, the exchange rate does not currently pose a strong external constraint. Internally, since 2025, the net interest margin of banks has shown signs of stabilization, remaining at 1.42% for two consecutive quarters. In 2026, there will be a large - scale repricing of long - term deposits such as three - year and five - year deposits, combined with the reduction of various re - loan interest rates, which will help reduce banks' interest - paying costs and stabilize the net interest margin, creating room for interest rate cuts [13]. Group 4: Geopolitical Situation - On January 17, Eastern Time, US President Trump announced that starting from February 1, he would impose a 10% tariff on all goods exported to the United States from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Finland until an agreement on "fully and completely purchasing Greenland" was reached [14]. - On January 18, many EU countries considered imposing tariffs on US goods worth 93 billion euros or restricting US companies to counter Trump's tariff increase on eight European countries to obtain Greenland. The 27 EU countries held a meeting to discuss restarting the list and hoped to wait for the US action on February 1 to make a decision [14]. Group 5: Market Outlook - In the domestic equity market, investors' risk appetite is expected to remain high. It is recommended to pay attention to investment opportunities in precious metals, storage, innovative drugs, computing power, artificial intelligence, etc [15]. - In the domestic bond market, the bond market may continue to fluctuate narrowly, but the 10 - year government bond yield above 1.85% has allocation value [15]. - In the commodity market, the long - term bullish logic of precious metals such as gold remains unchanged, but short - term fluctuations may increase due to the escalation of the Greenland situation [16].