瑞达期货螺纹钢产业链日报-20260121

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core View of the Report - On Wednesday, the RB2605 contract rebounded slightly. Macroscopically, the Ministry of Natural Resources and the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development issued the "Notice on Several Measures to Further Support Urban Renewal Actions", which proposed a transition - period policy for using existing land and real - estate resources to develop state - supported industries and sectors. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar remained at a low level with a capacity utilization rate of 41.72%; the apparent demand turned from a decline to an increase, and the inventory decreased slightly. Overall, in the off - season of consumption, rebar trading was sluggish, and the support from the cost side weakened due to the weakness of furnace materials. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2605 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were operating below the 0 axis. The reference view is to short on the rebound and pay attention to risk control [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,117.00 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the position volume of the RB main contract was 1,742,258 lots, up 1,023 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 53,983 lots, up 3,282 lots; the spread between the RB5 - 10 contracts was - 45 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the daily warehouse receipt of the RB on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 49,244 tons, unchanged; the spread between the HC2605 - RB2605 contracts was 169 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight calculation) was 3,290.00 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (weighing) was 3,374 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight calculation) was 3,450.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Tianjin (theoretical weight calculation) was 3,160.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the RB main contract was 173.00 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 20.00 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 795.00 yuan/wet ton, up 2.00 yuan; the price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port (FOB price) was 1,490.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (ex - tax) was 2,170.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,930.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the inventory of iron ore at 45 ports (weekly, 10,000 tons) was 16,550.81, up 270.87; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants (weekly, 10,000 tons) was 40.48, down 3.50; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills (weekly, 10,000 tons) was 650.20, up 4.34; the inventory of billets in Tangshan (weekly, 10,000 tons) was 149.31, up 8.56 [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly, %) was 78.82, down 0.51; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly, %) was 85.46, down 0.60; the rebar output of sample steel mills (weekly, 10,000 tons) was 190.30, down 0.74; the capacity utilization rate of rebar of sample steel mills (weekly, %) was 41.72, down 0.16; the inventory of rebar at sample steel mills (weekly, 10,000 tons) was 142.66, down 5.27; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities (weekly, 10,000 tons) was 295.41, up 5.23; the operating rate of independent electric - arc furnace steel mills (weekly, %) was 71.88, up 1.05; the domestic crude steel output (monthly, 10,000 tons) was 6,818, down 169; the monthly output of Chinese steel bars (monthly, 10,000 tons) was 1,434, up 59; the net export volume of steel (monthly, 10,000 tons) was 1,078.00, up 130.00 [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index (monthly) was 91.45, down 0.44; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion (monthly, %) was - 3.80, down 1.20; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment completion (monthly, %) was - 17.20, down 1.30; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment (monthly, %) was - 2.20, down 1.10; the cumulative value of housing construction area (monthly, 10,000 square meters) was 659,890, down 3,824; the cumulative value of new housing construction area (monthly, 10,000 square meters) was 58,770, down 5,313; the unsold area of commercial housing (monthly, 10,000 square meters) was 40,236.00, down 875.00 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In 2026, the Minister of the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development, Ni Hong, said that urban renewal contains huge investment and consumption potential. It is necessary to build new houses into "good houses" and gradually transform old houses into "good houses", and support the reasonable financing needs of real - estate enterprises and the rigid and improved housing needs of residents. - The relationship between the United States and European countries has become increasingly tense, affecting the capital market. On Tuesday, the Danish pension fund AkademikerPension said it would withdraw from the US Treasury market by the end of this month due to financial concerns [2]. 3.7 Key Points to Watch - The weekly output, in - plant inventory, and social inventory of rebar on Thursday [2]