瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20260121

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic methanol production decreased this week as the loss of production capacity due to maintenance and production cuts exceeded the output from restored capacity. The inventory of inland enterprises decreased slightly, while the port inventory increased slightly. The MTO device has been operating stably this week with no obvious change plans, and the weekly average operating rate is expected to decline. The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2170 - 2270 yuan/ton in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2209 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread is -23 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 848,962 lots, an increase of 18,039 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is -169,532 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 8,075, a decrease of 280 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2210 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 1820 yuan/ton, down 12.5 yuan/ton. The price difference between East China and Northwest is 365 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is 1 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton. The CFR price at the main Chinese port is 261 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 322 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 262 euros/ton, unchanged; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is -61 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.89 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.78 US dollars [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 103.89 tons, a decrease of 8.44 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 39.64 tons, a decrease of 1.75 tons. The import profit of methanol is -20.56 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.89 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 141.76 tons, a decrease of 19.5 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 438,300 tons, a decrease of 12,600 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises is 91.11%, a decrease of 0.31% [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 34.23%, an increase of 0.16%; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 3.74%, an increase of 0.78%. The operating rate of acetic acid is 78.4%, an increase of 1.41%; the operating rate of MTBE is 67.57%, unchanged. The operating rate of olefins is 85.77%, a decrease of 2.29%; the on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins is -942 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 20.77%, a decrease of 0.5%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 18.78%, a decrease of 0.08%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 20.53%, a decrease of 1.56%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 20.53%, a decrease of 1.66% [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of January 21st, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 43.83 tons, a decrease of 1.25 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.78%; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 23.83 tons, a slight increase of 0.05 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.21% - As of January 21st, the total inventory at Chinese methanol ports was 145.75 tons, an increase of 2.22 tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China decreased by 1.36 tons, while the inventory in South China increased by 3.58 tons - As of January 15th, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 86.93%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.38%. The MTO device of Zhejiang Xingxing has stopped, and some enterprises are still operating at a reduced load [2]