瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20260121

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - For rapeseed meal, the current spot price is supported by the shutdown of oil mills, but the overall market is expected to remain weakly volatile due to the improved China - Canada trade relations, increased supply expectations from Canada and Australia, and the relatively loose global and Canadian rapeseed supply - demand pattern [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the current price is supported by the shutdown of oil mills and the de - stocking mode, with a high basis. However, the improved China - Canada trade relations and expected increase in future supply from Canada and Australia will bring pressure on the market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil was 8947 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; that of rapeseed meal was 2228 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan. The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed contract was 636 Canadian dollars/ton, down 3 Canadian dollars, and that of the active rapeseed contract was 5537 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [2]. - Spreads and positions: The rapeseed oil 5 - 9 monthly spread was 9 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan; the rapeseed meal 5 - 9 monthly spread was - 38 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The net long positions of the top 20 futures contracts for rapeseed oil were - 19038 lots, up 1080 lots; for rapeseed meal, they were - 262810 lots, up 430 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 1864, down 71; that of rapeseed meal was 59, down 25 [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9780 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2340 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil was 9886.25 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. - Price differences and ratios: The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract was 832 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan; that of the rapeseed meal main contract was 112 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan. The oil - meal ratio was 4.07, down 0.06 [2]. Upstream Situation - Production and imports: The global rapeseed production forecast was 95.27 million tons, up 3 million tons. The annual forecast production of rapeseed was 13446 thousand tons, unchanged. The total rapeseed import volume was 0.2 million tons, up 0.2 million tons [2]. - Profits and operations: The import rapeseed crushing profit was 329 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan. The weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 0%, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 0.2 million tons, unchanged; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 0 million tons, unchanged. The East China rapeseed oil inventory was 27.4 million tons, up 2.25 million tons; the East China rapeseed meal inventory was 14.1 million tons, down 1.6 million tons [2]. - Import volume: The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 14 million tons, down 2 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal was 22.06 million tons, up 6.29 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed was 2977.9 million tons, up 20.9 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil was 427.6 million tons, down 67.4 million tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 5738 billion yuan, down 319 billion yuan [2]. Option Market - Volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 19.22%, down 0.85%; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 16.96%, and the 60 - day historical volatility was 13.35%, down 0.01% [2]. Industry News - ICE rapeseed futures fell slightly on January 20 due to selling after a recent price rebound. The South American soybean harvest is expected to be high, which restricts international soybean prices. US soybean crushing remains strong to meet bio - fuel demand [2]. Key Points to Watch - The rapeseed operating rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventories in various regions reported by Myagric on Monday [2]