瑞达期货锰硅硅铁产业日报-20260121

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For manganese - silicon, supply - side开工率and production decline, manganese ore port inventory slightly accumulates, silicon - manganese inventory decreases but remains high; demand for silicon - manganese in five major steel types drops, and steel mill hot metal production declines. Cost support weakens, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly. [2] - For silicon - iron, the fundamentals show a double - reduction in supply and demand, both at low levels in the same period, and the inventory is neutral. With the support of semi - coke, it is relatively resistant to decline, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM主力合约收盘价is 5,786.00 yuan/ton, down 12.00 yuan; SF主力合约收盘价is 5,556.00 yuan/ton, up 4.00 yuan. [2] - SM期货合约持仓量is 613,881.00 hands, up 15,542.00 hands; SF期货合约持仓量is 410,165.00 hands, up 1,189.00 hands. [2] - Manganese - silicon's top 20 net positions are - 12,303.00 hands, down 1,024.00 hands; Silicon - iron's top 20 net positions are - 27,919.00 hands, up 697.00 hands. [2] - SM5 - 3月合约价差is 38.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; SF4 - 3月合约价差is - 12.00 yuan/ton, up 8.00 yuan. [2] - SM仓单is 35,895.00 sheets, down 248.00 sheets; SF仓单is 0.00 sheets, down 10,007.00 sheets. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 is 5,670.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Inner Mongolia silicon - iron FeSi75 - B is 5,370.00 yuan/ton, down 50.00 yuan. [2] - Guizhou manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 is 5,720.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Qinghai silicon - iron FeSi75 - B is 5,250.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - Yunnan manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 is 5,680.00 yuan/ton, down 20.00 yuan; Ningxia silicon - iron FeSi75 - B is 5,300.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan. [2] - Manganese - silicon index average (weekly) is 5,735.00 yuan/ton, up 9.17 yuan; SF主力合约基差 (daily) is - 256.00 yuan/ton, up 6.00 yuan. [2] - SM主力合约基差 (daily) is - 116.00 yuan/ton, up 12.00 yuan. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of South African high - iron manganese ore at Tianjin Port is 31.55 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; the price of silica (98%, Northwest) is 210.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The average price of South African semi - carbonate manganese ore at Tianjin Port is 36.45 yuan/ton - degree, down 0.30 yuan; the price of semi - coke (medium material, Shenmu) is 820.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The price of Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke is 1,110.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - Manganese ore port inventory (weekly) is 421.80 million tons, up 4.30 million tons. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Manganese - silicon enterprise开工率 (weekly) is 36.06%, down 0.75%; silicon - iron enterprise开工率 (weekly) is 29.21%, down 0.42%. [2] - Manganese - silicon supply (weekly) is 190,575.00 tons, down 455.00 tons; silicon - iron supply (weekly) is 98,700.00 tons, down 400.00 tons. [2] - Manganese - silicon manufacturer inventory (half - monthly) is 372,800.00 tons, down 9,700.00 tons; silicon - iron manufacturer inventory (half - monthly) is 63,750.00 tons, down 5,160.00 tons. [2] - Manganese - silicon national steel mill inventory (monthly, days) is 15.52 days, down 0.32 days; silicon - iron national steel mill inventory (monthly, days) is 15.41 days, down 0.39 days. [2] - The demand for manganese - silicon in five major steel types (weekly) is 115,815.00 tons, down 84.00 tons; the demand for silicon - iron in five major steel types (weekly) is 18,481.70 tons, down 27.10 tons. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The开工率of 247 steel mill blast furnaces (weekly) is 78.84%, down 0.47%; the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mill blast furnaces (weekly) is 85.48%, down 0.56%. [2] - Crude steel production (monthly) is 6,818.00 million tons, down 169.10 million tons. [2] 3.6 Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission will study and formulate an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030, implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, and crack down on low - price and disorderly competition among enterprises. [2] - Mysteel: A steel mill in East China has tendered for silicon - manganese at a price of 5,830 yuan/ton, with a cash - inclusive ex - factory price of 5,720 yuan in Jiangsu and 5,650 yuan in Tianjin. [2]