瑞达期货PVC产业日报-20260121

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The domestic supply - demand imbalance of PVC is difficult to improve. In the short term, V2605 is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the daily range estimated to be around 4650 - 4820 yuan/ton. The terminal real estate and infrastructure are in the low - temperature off - season, and the demand side is weak. The cancellation of export tax rebates from April will have a negative impact on the far - end price, and foreign buyers' resistance to high prices weakens price support. The upstream calcium carbide supply - demand tight balance may strengthen the cost support of the calcium carbide method [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4743 yuan/ton, a decrease of 64 yuan; the trading volume is 1324283 lots, a decrease of 37449 lots; the open interest is 1071654 lots, an increase of 34533 lots. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders are 1092451 lots, an increase of 40442 lots; the short positions are 1167227 lots, an increase of 24205 lots; the net long positions are - 74776 lots, an increase of 16237 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4790 yuan/ton with no change, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4578.08 yuan/ton with no change. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4835 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4605 yuan/ton, an increase of 16.25 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China is 660 US dollars/ton with no change, and the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 630 US dollars/ton with no change. The FOB price in Northwest Europe is 660 US dollars/ton with no change. The basis of PVC is - 243 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2750 yuan/ton with no change, in North China is 2698.33 yuan/ton with no change, and in Northwest China is 2561 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 150 yuan/ton with no change. The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East is 402 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars; in Southeast Asia is 428 US dollars/ton with no change. The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East is 189 US dollars/ton with no change, and in Southeast Asia is 194 US dollars/ton with no change [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 79.63%, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 79.98%, an increase of 0.27 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 78.79%, a decrease of 0.77 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC is 56.16 tons, an increase of 1.52 tons; the total social inventory in the East China region is 51.62 tons, an increase of 1.43 tons; the total social inventory in the South China region is 4.54 tons, an increase of 0.09 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index is 91.9, a decrease of 0.53. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 53456.7 million square meters, an increase of 4395.31 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area is 656066.2 million square meters, an increase of 3127.17 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment is 42024.57 billion yuan, an increase of 3041.6 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 21.31%, a decrease of 0.54 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 19.49%, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.95%, a decrease of 1.47 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 19.95%, a decrease of 1.42 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - From January 9th to 15th, the PVC capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.04% to 79.63%. From January 10th to 16th, the downstream operating rate of PVC decreased by 0.11% to 43.91%, among which the operating rate of pipes remained stable at 35.4%, and the operating rate of profiles decreased by 0.31% to 29.91%. As of January 16th, the PVC social inventory was 114.41 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.70%. From January 10th to 16th, the average cost of the calcium carbide method nationwide increased to 5094 yuan/ton, and the average cost of the ethylene method nationwide decreased to 5003 yuan/ton; the profit of the calcium carbide method decreased to - 663 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ethylene method increased to - 138 yuan/ton. The 400,000 - ton plant of Qinzhou Huayi restarted, while the 200,000 - ton plant of Yibin Tianyuan and the 500,000 - ton plant of Wanhua Fujian were shut down for maintenance [3].