瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20260121

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term forecast for the UR2605 contract shows a price fluctuation range between 1,750 - 1,800 yuan/ton. The domestic urea enterprise inventory is expected to continue a slight reduction. The production is likely to change within a limited range. The industrial demand for compound fertilizers is steadily advancing, providing support for urea, and there is a growing trend in partial agricultural demand [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1,779 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread is 29 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the main contract's holding volume is 241,385 lots, up 8,311 lots; the net holding of the top 20 is - 13,575 lots, up 1,493 lots; the exchange warehouse receipts are 13,340 sheets, down 15 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic market, the spot prices in Hebei, Henan, Shandong are 1,750 yuan/ton with no change; in Jiangsu and Anhui are 1,760 yuan/ton with no change. The main contract basis is - 29 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan. The FOB prices in the Baltic Sea and China's main port are 375 and 405 US dollars/ton respectively, with no change [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory is 13.4 million tons, down 0.6 million tons; the enterprise inventory is 98.61 million tons, down 3.61 million tons. The urea enterprise operating rate is 85.25%, up 2.03%; the daily output is 200,700 tons, up 4,800 tons. The urea export volume is 60 million tons, down 60 million tons; the monthly output is 6,000,330 tons, up 129,060 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 40.08%, up 2.91%; the melamine operating rate is 62.18%, up 7.83%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizers in China is 187 yuan/ton, down 57 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is - 148 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan. The monthly output of compound fertilizers is 438.25 million tons, up 75.38 million tons; the weekly output of melamine is 32,400 tons, up 4,100 tons [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of January 21, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 94.60 million tons, a decrease of 4.01 million tons from last week, a 4.07% decline. The inventory reduction was mainly in the Inner Mongolia region. As of January 15, the port inventory was 13.4 million tons, a decrease of 0.6 million tons, a 4.29% decline. The urea production was 1.4051 billion tons, an increase of 335,000 tons, a 2.44% increase; the production capacity utilization rate was 85.25%, an increase of 2.03% [2].