上下游僵持博弈，煤焦低位震荡：煤焦日报-20260121

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On January 21, the coke main contract was reported at 1,683.5 yuan/ton, with an intraday loss of 0.59%. The position volume of the main contract at the close was 38,400 lots, a decrease of 71 lots from the previous trading day. The spot market prices of Rizhao Port and Qingdao Port showed different trends. Currently, coke maintains a situation of weak supply and demand, with a weakening cost - support due to increased Mongolian coal imports and concerns about iron - water production cuts caused by steel mill accidents. The futures price remains weak at a low level [6][30]. - On January 21, the coking coal main contract closed at 1,129 points, down 1.83% intraday. The position volume of the main contract at the close was 515,400 lots, a decrease of 17,288 lots from the previous trading day. The spot price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port increased week - on - week. Overall, the import of Mongolian coal remains high, resulting in a situation of increased supply and stable demand for coking coal. Without policy intervention, coal prices may remain low before the Spring Festival [7][31]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - Fiscal - financial coordinated policies to boost domestic demand have been implemented, including loan interest subsidies for small and medium - sized enterprises, a special guarantee plan for private investment, and optimized interest subsidy policies for service industry business entities and individual consumer loans [8]. - On January 21, the price of coking coal in the Linfen Anze market increased by 20 yuan/ton, with the ex - factory price of low - sulfur main coking clean coal being 1,640 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Week - on - Week Change | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Year - on - Year Same - Period Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade coke (flat price) | 1,470 yuan/ton | 0.00% | - 3.29% | - 13.02% | - 7.55% | | Qingdao Port quasi - first - grade coke (out - of - warehouse price) | 1,450 yuan/ton | - 2.03% | 0.00% | - 10.49% | - 5.84% | | Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port | 1,240 yuan/ton | 2.06% | 9.73% | 5.08% | 7.83% | | Australian - produced coal at Jingtang Port | 1,550 yuan/ton | - 2.52% | 2.65% | 4.03% | 3.33% | | Shanxi - produced coal at Jingtang Port | 1,750 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 2.94% | 14.38% | 14.38% | [10] 3.3 Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Intraday Change | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Volume | Volume Difference | Position Volume | Position Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,683.5 yuan/ton | - 0.59% | 1,687.5 yuan/ton | 1,663 yuan/ton | | - 223,511 | 38,358 lots | - 71 lots | | Coking Coal | | 1,129 points | - 1.83% | 1,131 points | 1,070 points | 616 | | 515,444 lots | - 17,288 lots | [14] 3.4 Relevant Charts - Coke Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of 230 independent coking plants, port total coke inventory, 247 steel - mill coking plants, and total coke inventory from 2021 to 2026 [15][17][18]. - Coking Coal Inventory: Charts display the inventory trends of mine - mouth coking coal, all - sample independent coking plants, port coking coal, and 247 sample steel - mill coking coal from 2021 to 2026 [20][22][24]. - Other Charts: Include Shanghai terminal wire - rod procurement volume, domestic steel - mill production situation, coal - washing plant production situation, and coking - plant operation situation [27][29][30]. 3.5 Market Outlook - The outlook for coke is similar to the core viewpoint. It is expected to maintain a low - level and weak operation due to factors such as the stalemate between coking enterprises and steel mills, weak supply - demand fundamentals, and weakened cost support [30]. - The outlook for coking coal is also in line with the core viewpoint. Without policy intervention, coal prices are likely to be suppressed by the fundamentals and remain low before the Spring Festival [31].