美股前瞻01.21：格陵兰争端叠加日债抛售，美股债汇三杀重演

Market Overview - Recent geopolitical tensions, including Trump's remarks on Greenland and Japan's aggressive fiscal policies, have led to significant market volatility, with U.S. stocks, bonds, and currencies all declining [1] - The 40-year Japanese government bond yield has historically surpassed 4%, causing a ripple effect that increased the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield by 8 basis points to 4.293% [1] - Major U.S. indices experienced declines, with the Nasdaq down 2.39%, S&P 500 down 2.06%, and the VIX index rising 18.79% to 18.84 [1] Core Insights - The report suggests that the market is pricing in worst-case scenarios due to Trump's actions regarding Greenland and the potential for a trade war, alongside Japan's fiscal policy threatening global asset arbitrage [3] - The report indicates that the balance in U.S. stocks has been disrupted, suggesting a potential short-term correction phase [3] - The possibility of a TACO (Tactical Asset Class Opportunity) is considered high, but it may take longer to materialize compared to previous market reversals [3] Investment Strategy - The report advises against aggressive strategies in the current environment, recommending observation of market sentiment and potential pullbacks before adjusting positions [3] - It suggests maintaining positions in precious metals for hedging, while also considering sectors like healthcare and consumer staples that are relatively resilient [3] - The report highlights opportunities in military and low-altitude sectors due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, and suggests selectively increasing positions in semiconductor hardware that have shown less decline [3]