钢材&铁矿石日报：现实矛盾累积，钢矿弱势震荡-20260121

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated weakly, with a daily decline of 0.35%. Although the demand for rebar has improved, its sustainability is questionable. The supply is weakly stable, and the fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness. Coupled with the downward drag on costs, it is expected that the steel price will remain under pressure during the off - season and continue to operate in a weakly oscillating manner. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5][37]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated, with a daily decline of 0.06%. Under the current situation of high supply and demand, the fundamentals of hot - rolled coil are operating stably, but there are concerns about demand. Once the demand weakens, industrial contradictions are likely to accumulate, and the price will be under pressure to decline. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [5][37]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated, with a daily decline of 0.32%. At present, although the supply of iron ore is shrinking, the inventory is high, and the demand is weakly stable. The fundamentals of the iron ore market are still weak, and the iron ore price continues to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is the pre - holiday restocking expectation. Under the game of long and short factors, the iron ore price will continue to operate in a weakly oscillating manner. Attention should be paid to the restocking situation of steel mills [5][38]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - The Minister of Housing and Urban - Rural Development supports the reasonable financing needs of real - estate enterprises and the rigid and improved housing needs of residents. In 2026, the focus in urban renewal is to promote the renovation of old urban communities, complete community construction, and the transformation of small public spaces in cities [7]. - According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in 2025, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles increased by 29% and 28.2% year - on - year respectively. In December 2025, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles reached 1.718 million and 1.71 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.3% and 7.2% [8]. - Rio Tinto's iron ore production in the Pilbara region in the fourth quarter of 2025 was 89.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. The shipping volume was 91.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.53%. In 2026, Rio Tinto's shipping target for Pilbara iron ore remains unchanged at 323 - 338 million tons [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and other products are provided, along with their price changes. For example, the Shanghai spot price of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) is 3,240 yuan, a decrease of 10 yuan; the Shanghai spot price of hot - rolled coil (4.75mm) is 3,270 yuan, unchanged [10]. 3.3 Futures Market - The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore are presented. For example, the closing price of rebar is 3,117 yuan, with a decline of 0.35%; the closing price of hot - rolled coil is 3,286 yuan, with a decline of 0.06%; the closing price of iron ore is 784.0 yuan, with a decline of 0.32% [12]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - Steel Inventory: It includes the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mill + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil, showing the inventory trends over different years [14][15][20]. - Iron Ore Inventory: It shows the inventory of 45 ports in China, the inventory of 247 steel mills, and the inventory of domestic mine iron concentrate, along with their seasonal changes and inventory changes [22][23][26]. - Steel Mill Production: It includes the blast - furnace start - up rate, capacity utilization rate, and the proportion of profitable steel mills of 247 sample steel mills, as well as the start - up rate of 87 independent electric furnaces and the profit and loss situation of 75 building - material independent electric - arc - furnace steel mills [29][31][36]. 3.5 Market Outlook - Rebar: The supply is weakly stable, and there is a possibility of production increase in the future. The demand has improved, but its sustainability is questionable. The fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness, and the steel price is expected to remain under pressure and operate in a weakly oscillating manner [37]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: The supply is at a relatively high level, and the inventory is significantly higher than in previous years. The demand has some resilience, but there are concerns. Once the demand weakens, the price will be under pressure [37]. - Iron Ore: The supply is shrinking seasonally, but the inventory is high, and the demand is weakly stable. The iron ore price is under pressure, but there is a pre - holiday restocking expectation, and it will continue to operate in a weakly oscillating manner [38].