银河期货沥青日报-20260121

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The委内 oil raw material discount market quotation has risen, but there is still no real transaction. The impact of Venezuela on oil prices is gradually digested by the market, and the expectation of tight asphalt raw material supply has also eased. The increase in raw material discounts has not been fully traded, and asphalt shows a high - level shock. [7] - The Iranian situation is volatile, and geopolitical risks fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to unilateral risks. [7] - At the beginning of the year, the off - season has arrived as scheduled. The weekly supply and demand have decreased synchronously, the industrial chain inventory remains at a low level, and the spot price is relatively firm. The short - term disk is expected to fluctuate at a high level. [7] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Related Data - Futures Prices and Positions: On January 20, 2026, compared with the previous day, the price of BU2603 (the main contract) decreased by 3 to 3139, a decline of 0.10%; BU2604 increased by 1 to 3152, an increase of 0.03%; BU2605 increased by 71 to 3153, an increase of 2.30%; SC2603 decreased by 0.4 to 437.0, a decline of 0.09%; Brent first - line decreased by 0.5 to 63.27, a decline of 0.86%. The main contract position decreased by 0.1 to 19.1 million lots, a decline of 0.51%; the main contract trading volume decreased by 0.6 to 11.9 million lots, a decline of 4.68%; the warehouse receipt quantity remained unchanged at 46920 tons. [2] - Basis and Spread: BU04 - 05 decreased by 70 to - 1.00, a decline of 101.45%; BU04 - 03 decreased by 4 to - 13.00, a decline of 244.44%; the Shandong - main contract basis decreased by 11 to 48.00, a decline of 18.64%; the East China - main contract basis decreased by 1 to - 2.00, a decline of 300.00%; the South China - main contract basis decreased by 1 to 28.00, a decline of 3.45%. [2] - Industrial Chain Spot Prices: The Shandong market price decreased by 10 to 3070, a decline of 0.32%; the East China market price remained unchanged at 3150; the South China market price remained unchanged at 3180; Shandong gasoline decreased by 30 to 6981, a decline of 0.43%; Shandong diesel decreased by 42 to 5665, a decline of 0.74%; Shandong petroleum coke decreased by 30 to 2920, a decline of 1.02%; the diluted asphalt discount remained unchanged at - 13.2; the exchange - rate intermediate price decreased by 0.0045 to 7.0006, a decline of 0.06%. [2] - Spread and Profit: The asphalt refinery profit increased by 8.91 to 26.05, an increase of - 51.95% (the increase sign here may be a calculation error in the original text); the refined oil comprehensive profit decreased by 3.62 to 50.32, a decline of 6.71%; BU - SC cracking increased by 3.80 to - 400.72, an increase of 0.94%; gasoline spot - Brent increased by 4.48 to 744.92, an increase of 0.61%; diesel spot - Brent decreased by 6.14 to 270.31, a decline of 2.22%. [2] 3.2 Market Research and Judgment - Market Overview: The average price of the domestic asphalt market was 3240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decline of 0.03%. In the Shandong and North China markets, the demand was weak, and the market trading was light. The prices of some brands in Shandong were slightly lowered, driving the market transaction center down. In the South China market, the demand was stable, the main refineries limited the shipment, and the prices remained stable, but some traders slightly increased the prices. In the East China market, the demand was restricted, the trading was limited, and the high - price resources in the social inventory were difficult to sell, but the main refineries had no inventory pressure, and the asphalt prices remained stable. [5] - Regional Market Conditions: In the Shandong market, the mainstream transaction price of heavy - traffic asphalt decreased by 5 to 3110 - 3220 yuan/ton. The terminal demand further decreased, and the prices of some high - price resources decreased slightly by about 10 yuan/ton. However, the main refineries continued to implement the bottom - guarantee policy, and the shipment improved. In the short term, the terminal users picked up the goods as planned, supporting the refinery shipment, but the spot transaction would continue to weaken, and the asphalt prices might still decline. In the Yangtze River Delta market, the mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3210 - 3210 yuan/ton. The terminal demand was average, and the overall shipment was less than before. However, the main refineries adopted the price - reduction auction sales model for road transportation, which was beneficial to the shipment. In the short term, the asphalt prices might remain stable. In the social inventory, the asphalt futures disk was stable, and the price of Zhenjiang warehouse remained stable at about 3150 yuan/ton, and the high - price resources might loosen in the short term. In the South China market, the mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3110 - 3150 yuan/ton. The supply and demand in the South China region were stable, the main refineries limited the shipment, and the market mostly maintained stable - price shipments. Some traders in Foshan increased the prices, but the high - price resources had poor transactions, and the mainstream transaction price remained stable at about 3150 yuan/ton. In the short term, the local mainstream transaction price would still be mainly stable. [5][6] 3.3 Related Attachments - The report provides several figures, including the closing price of the BU main contract, the position of the BU main contract, the market price of asphalt in East China, the market price of asphalt in Shandong, the price of Shandong local refinery gasoline, and the price of Shandong local refinery diesel, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Wind, and Steel Union. [9]