安踏体育：单季度流水有所波动，长期聚焦品牌深化-20260121

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the overall sentiment appears to be cautiously optimistic regarding long-term growth potential [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a low single-digit negative growth in retail sales for the Anta brand in Q4 2025, while the FILA brand achieved a mid-single-digit positive growth. Other brands experienced a retail sales growth of 35-40% in the same quarter [1][2]. - The company aims to enhance brand value and operational quality, focusing on different strategies for each brand in 2026. The core goal for the Anta brand is to reverse the decline and restore growth through professional category focus and channel upgrades [3][4]. - The company anticipates a challenging profit margin in 2026 due to increased investments in R&D, marketing, and product innovation, particularly as it integrates the Jack Wolfskin brand [4]. Summary by Sections Q4 and Full Year Performance - Anta brand recorded a low single-digit negative growth in Q4 2025, primarily affected by short-term factors such as the children's line and consumer confidence. The FILA brand showed resilience with mid-single-digit growth [2]. - The professional outdoor lines, including DESCENTE and KOLON SPORT, demonstrated significant growth, with DESCENTE achieving approximately 25-30% growth in Q4 and nearly 40% for the full year [2]. Profitability and Financial Outlook - The company expects to maintain its profit margin guidance for 2025, with targets of 20-25% for Anta, around 25% for FILA, and 25-30% for other brands [3]. - For 2026, the company plans to increase investments, which may pressure profit margins in the short term, but is seen as a strategic move for long-term growth [4]. Financial Projections - The projected net profit for the company for the fiscal years 2025-2027 is estimated at 131.97 billion, 142.43 billion, and 156.54 billion respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 15.71X, 14.55X, and 13.24X [5][6]. - Total revenue is expected to grow from 70.83 billion in 2024 to 92.56 billion by 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 14% in 2024, 11% in 2025, and stabilizing at 9% thereafter [6].