从海外长债开始的连锁反应

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The recent rapid increase in long - term interest rates in the US and Japan has dragged down the performance of global bond markets, stock markets, and some commodity markets. This reflects not only the warming of the fundamentals and the rise in inflation expectations but also the loss of fiscal discipline in developed countries, challenges to central bank independence, and concerns about long - term bond demand under the background of global order reconstruction, resulting in the "anchor loss" of long - term and ultra - long - term interest rates and a rapid steepening of the yield curve [2][24]. - In the context of continuous global fiscal expansion and monetary coordination, if the upward slope of inflation is limited, a relatively positive attitude can still be maintained towards stocks and commodities such as non - ferrous metals. However, it is advisable to turn to a wait - and - see approach in the short term, wait for adjustments, and then allocate at low prices. Moderately bet on the TACO trade or the fed put market [2][26]. - The impact of the rise in global long - term interest rates on the domestic bond market is small, and the comparison effect is very limited. A decline in risk appetite and RMB appreciation may even bring certain benefits. There are certain uncertainties in both the technology stocks and high - dividend sectors of the Hong Kong stock market [2][26]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions Assessment - Domestic: Last week's data showed that external demand remained high, prices rose, and domestic demand recovery was differentiated, with the production side maintaining resilience. High - frequency data indicated accelerated infrastructure investment. Consumption showed high travel enthusiasm but a year - on - year decline in automobile consumption. In the real estate market, transaction heat recovered from a low level, with second - hand housing showing stronger repair elasticity. External demand had high throughput year - on - year, and the production side was positively affected by the late Spring Festival. Industrial freight volume decline narrowed, and some industrial and construction indicators were stronger than seasonal levels. Prices of crude oil and black - series products rose [31]. - Overseas: Last week, US inflation and employment data were better than expected. The investigation of Powell intensified market concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, and the selection of the Fed chairman became a short - term focus. Geopolitical tensions fluctuated, increasing risk - aversion sentiment. The US 12 - month core CPI growth rate was 0.2%, and the initial jobless claims were lower than expected [32]. Configuration Suggestions - A - shares: After the market showed a large trading volume last week, there were frequent signals to cool down the market. The Spring Festival market is not over yet, and a "technical correction" is needed. Investors are advised to maintain their positions but adjust their portfolio structures, avoid broad - based ETF heavy - position stocks, high - valuation speculative sectors, and overseas liquidity - sensitive varieties, and focus on the opportunity for high - performance stocks to make up for losses [28]. - Domestic Bonds: There are short - term favorable conditions, with the 30 - 10 - year Treasury yield spread approaching 50bp. The operation strategy is "band trading + equity exposure + coupon > leverage operation > variety selection > credit downgrade". Continue to earn coupons in the short term and bet on long - term bands. It is recommended to reduce the convertible bond position to a neutral level [27]. - US Bonds: The probability of Kevin Warsh becoming the Fed chairman has risen to 61%. His policy of "interest rate cut + balance - sheet reduction" may lead to a steeper yield curve and an upward risk of long - term yields. Pay attention to the final appointment of the Fed chairman and whether Powell will continue to serve as a director. The 10 - year US Treasury has broken through the key resistance level of 4.2%, and it is more likely to continue rising in the short term [29]. - US Stocks: The new round of trade frictions between the US and Europe has suppressed risk appetite. The US may enter a state of "macro - cold + micro - hot" in the short term. The market is slightly overcrowded, but if there is a significant adjustment, it can be regarded as an opportunity. Structurally, the trend of style re - balancing may continue [30]. - Commodities: Geopolitical tensions have increased the demand for precious metals as a safe - haven asset, but price volatility has increased after reaching new highs. It is recommended to follow the trend and set stop - loss levels. Copper may face short - term adjustment pressure, energy metals are relatively strong but volatile, and crude oil price volatility has increased. The sentiment of black - series commodities has weakened [30]. Follow - up Concerns - Domestic: The 19th Asian Financial Forum and the news conference of the Ministry of Commerce [6][47] - Overseas: The Davos Forum, the IEA's monthly crude oil market report, the European Central Bank's December monetary policy meeting minutes, the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision, US economic data such as the January S&P Global PMI preliminary value, and the eurozone's January consumer confidence index preliminary value [6][47]