核心线索渐变，价格潜流蓄势：2026年通胀环境展望

Economic Overview - The inflation environment for 2025 is characterized by a bottoming out and stabilization, with the GDP deflator index dropping to -1.2% in Q2, the lowest since 2010, and improving to -1.0% in Q3[4][17]. - The manufacturing investment growth rate fell from 9.0% in February to 1.9% in November, indicating a slowdown in capacity expansion[4][5]. Price Trends - The PPI has shown signs of recovery, with a five-month consecutive increase from July to December, marking the first positive growth since June 2022[4][5]. - Key price increases in sectors such as storage chips (up 478%), copper (up 25.2%), and lithium hexafluorophosphate (up 248.2%) were noted from July to December 2025[4][20]. Structural Changes - The PPI base year will shift in 2026, with significant updates to the survey directory and weight adjustments, particularly increasing the weight of non-ferrous metal processing and computer communication electronics[4][28]. - The new PPI structure will better reflect emerging industries and technological advancements, potentially leading to a more pronounced impact on price readings[4][28]. Investment and Consumption - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to stimulate investment, particularly in infrastructure, which will support raw material prices in the construction sector[5][12]. - Consumer spending is anticipated to increase due to policies aimed at enhancing consumption rates, with a focus on public service equalization and short-term incentives for service consumption[5][12]. Global Economic Factors - Global liquidity conditions remain supportive, with M2 growth in major economies rising from 2.4% to 8.0% year-on-year, indicating a favorable environment for commodity prices[6][12]. - The export environment is projected to remain stable, with expected growth rates of 3-4% for exports, contributing to a balanced pricing scenario for major export products[5][12]. Risks and Uncertainties - Potential risks include unexpected downward pressure on the domestic economy, uncertainties in real estate policies, and fluctuations in global commodity prices[12][14]. - The impact of the pig cycle and other agricultural price trends may also influence inflation dynamics in 2026, with expectations of a price bottoming out in the first half of the year[10][12].