Guolian Minsheng Securities·2026-01-21 11:05Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Duty Free Group (601888.SH) [2] Core Views - The acquisition of DFS's Greater China business marks a new chapter for China Duty Free Group, enhancing its position in the tourism retail market [8] - The transaction involves a cash purchase of up to $395 million for DFS's assets and equity in the Greater China region, which is expected to strengthen the company's service network in Hong Kong and Macau [8] - The partnership with LVMH is anticipated to optimize product structure and service levels, further enhancing the company's competitive edge [8] Financial Forecasts - Projected revenue for 2024 is 56.47 billion yuan, with a decline of 16.4%, followed by a slight decrease to 54.52 billion yuan in 2025, and growth to 62.18 billion yuan in 2026 and 69.63 billion yuan in 2027 [2][9] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 4.27 billion yuan in 2024, decreasing by 36.4%, then recovering to 3.88 billion yuan in 2025, and increasing to 5.18 billion yuan in 2026 and 5.82 billion yuan in 2027 [2][9] - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 2.06 yuan in 2024, 1.88 yuan in 2025, 2.50 yuan in 2026, and 2.81 yuan in 2027 [2][9] Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 46 in 2024, increasing to 51 in 2025, and then decreasing to 38 in 2026 and 34 in 2027 [2][9] - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to be 3.6 in 2024, slightly decreasing to 3.5 in 2025, and further to 3.3 in 2026 and 3.1 in 2027 [2][9]