能源日报-20260121

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ☆☆☆ (interpreted as a more clear upward trend with appropriate current investment opportunities according to the star - rating description) [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The crude oil market is mainly characterized by a bearish pattern dominated by loose supply and demand. The geopolitical situation is controllable, and the market is in a stage of relatively loose supply and inventory accumulation, with limited short - term upward space for oil prices [2]. - Geopolitical factors dominate the fuel oil market. The short - term geopolitical fluctuations support high - sulfur fuel oil, but the medium - term supply is expected to be loose. For low - sulfur fuel oil, winter demand provides support, but the supply pressure is emerging, and the strengthening of gasoline and diesel cracking may provide bottom - line support [3]. - The asphalt trend follows crude oil but with a relatively limited amplitude. After the current disk has priced in the expected cost increase due to the tightening of Venezuelan crude oil shipments to China, the upward driving force is limited, and it is in a range - bound pattern [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The Trump administration postponed military actions against Iran, and the geopolitical situation is temporarily tense but controllable, making it difficult to drive oil prices to rise continuously [2]. - The crude oil market is in a stage of relatively loose supply and inventory accumulation, causing part of the geopolitical risk premium previously included in oil prices to be reversed [2]. - Unless there is a significant interruption in oil supply due to conflicts, the short - term upward space for oil prices is expected to be limited, and the market is dominated by a bearish pattern of loose supply and demand [2]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Fuel Oil - Geopolitical factors are the main drivers of market fluctuations. Although the US - Iran situation is postponed, the risk remains. If Iran's exports are blocked, it will tighten regional supply and support fuel oil prices to be relatively resistant to decline, with a slight strengthening of the crack spread [3]. - Short - term geopolitical fluctuations will support high - sulfur fuel oil, but in the medium term, the supply will be loose due to the abundant raw materials and high inventory, showing an overall positive spread pattern [3]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Winter demand provides some support, but the supply from overseas refineries is rising. About 130,000 tons of low - sulfur fuel oil from the Kuwait Azour refinery is expected to arrive in Singapore in late January, bringing supply pressure and capping the upside [3]. - The strengthening of gasoline and diesel cracking may provide bottom - line support for low - sulfur fuel oil [3]. Asphalt - Oil prices have fluctuated sharply recently due to repeated geopolitical news, and the asphalt trend follows crude oil but with a relatively limited amplitude [4]. - Kpler data predicts that the arrivals in January will still be sufficient. After the current disk has priced in the expected cost increase due to the tightening of Venezuelan crude oil shipments to China, the upward driving force is limited, and it is in a range - bound pattern [4]. - Attention should be paid to the arrival situation of Venezuelan crude oil in the future [4].