黑色金属日报-20260121

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★★★ [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicon Manganese: Not provided - Silicon Iron: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The steel market is in a weak demand situation with low production and inventory accumulation. The iron ore market has a relatively loose supply - demand relationship and is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. The coke and coking coal markets are likely to be weakly volatile due to sufficient carbon supply and low downstream demand. The silicon manganese and silicon iron markets are suggested to be shorted on rebounds [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market fluctuates mainly. In the off - season, thread demand declines, production remains low, and inventory accumulates. Hot - rolled coil demand is still resilient, but de - stocking is slow. Steel mill profits are marginally repaired, but blast furnace复产 slows down, and hot metal production declines. Domestic demand is weak, while steel exports remain high. The market is expected to fluctuate in a range [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market is weakly volatile. Global shipments decline month - on - month but are stronger than the same period last year. Domestic arrivals decrease, but port inventories continue to increase. Terminal demand improves in the off - season, and steel mill复产 is disturbed. Steel mill import ore inventories increase but are still low, and there is an expectation of winter storage replenishment. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [3] Coke - Coke prices rebound slightly. Coking profits are average, and daily production decreases slightly. Coke inventories increase slightly, and traders' purchasing willingness improves slightly. Carbon supply is sufficient, downstream hot metal production is at an off - season level. The market expects relevant policies, but prices are likely to be weakly volatile due to high coking coal inventories and high Mongolian coal customs clearance data [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices rebound slightly. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal is 1371 vehicles. Coking coal mine production increases significantly, and spot auction transactions improve. Terminal inventories increase significantly, and total coking coal inventories rise slightly. Carbon supply is sufficient, downstream hot metal production is at an off - season level. The market expects relevant policies, but prices are likely to be weakly volatile due to high inventories and high Mongolian coal customs clearance data [6] Silicon Manganese - Silicon manganese prices decline in a volatile manner. Manganese ore spot prices rise due to the futures market rebound. There are structural problems in manganese ore port inventories. Iron water production decreases seasonally, silicon manganese weekly production and inventories decline slightly. It is recommended to short on rebounds [7] Silicon Iron - Silicon iron prices decline in a volatile manner. Affected by relevant policies, prices are relatively strong. There are expectations of a decline in power costs and semi - coke prices. Iron water production rebounds to a high - level range, export demand decreases, and metal magnesium production increases. Silicon iron supply decreases significantly, and inventories decline slightly. It is recommended to short on rebounds [8]