农产品日报-20260121

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bean No.1: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Meal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Palm Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Corn: ☆☆☆ [1] - Live Hogs: ☆☆☆ [1] - Eggs: ☆☆☆ [1] 2. Core Views - The overall view of the agricultural product market is complex, with different products showing different trends and requiring continuous attention to various factors such as policies, weather, and market supply and demand [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bean No.1 - The main contract of domestic soybeans significantly reduced positions and prices declined. The bid - auction of 33,000 tons of domestic soybeans by CGS on Wednesday this week was fully sold at a low - price of 3950 yuan/ton and an average price of 3950 yuan/ton, with zero premium. It is necessary to continuously follow the guidance from the policy and spot ends [2] 3.2 Soybean & Soybean Meal - U.S. soybeans are oscillating strongly at the bottom. The recent depreciation of the U.S. dollar is relatively favorable for U.S. soybean exports. However, the weather in South America has continuously improved, and the probability of La Nina turning into ENSO neutral in the first quarter is 75%. The expectation of a bumper harvest in South America has returned as the main trading logic, and U.S. soybeans continue the bottom - oscillating trend. It is necessary to follow the specific export situation of U.S. soybeans and the continuous impact of La Nina weather in South America [3] 3.3 Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Indonesia revoked the operating licenses of some plantation - related enterprises on Tuesday, increasing the influence and assessment difficulty of policies on palm oil prices. Malaysia's palm oil short - term high - frequency data shows an increase in exports and a decrease in production, which is beneficial to the improvement of its supply - demand structure. The RIN market price of U.S. soybean oil is still strong, and if it continues to strengthen, it will drive up U.S. soybean oil. The overall view on soybean and palm oil is range - bound [4] 3.4 Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed futures fluctuated in a narrow range today, and the external Canadian rapeseed also fluctuated around 640 Canadian dollars/ton. The futures markets in China and Canada have fully digested the improvement of economic and trade relations. It is necessary to pay attention to the official announcement of tariff adjustments for Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed oil. The domestic inventory of rapeseed downstream is at a low level, and the near - term supply is expected to be tight. Rapeseed meal demand is weak. It is expected that rapeseed products will fluctuate in a range - bound manner [6] 3.5 Corn - The spot prices of corn in Northeast China and the northern ports are stable, and the purchase prices of deep - processing enterprises in Northeast China are slightly stronger. The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong's deep - processing enterprises this morning increased significantly compared with yesterday, and some enterprises lowered their purchase prices. The increase in state and local reserve auctions may gradually form pressure. This year's corn supply is relatively sufficient. The Dalian corn futures will oscillate in the short term [7] 3.6 Live Hogs - Live hog futures have fallen for three consecutive days. The spot price has significantly corrected today, and the decline in northern provinces with large previous increases has also expanded. The sharp decline in the live hog futures market since Monday this week may mark the end of the recent phased rebound. It is expected that there will still be a low point in hog prices in the first half of next year [8] 3.7 Eggs - Egg futures are oscillating. The spot price is mostly stable today, with an increase in Hebei. In the short term, the futures and spot prices of eggs have been adjusted. In the long - term, the industry's fundamentals are gradually improving, and the inventory of laying hens is in a downward trend. The long - term strategy is to go long on dips [9]