PVC日报：震荡下行-20260121

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The PVC market is expected to experience a sideways downward trend, with the 03 - 05 contracts expected to show a relatively strong sideways movement under the stimulus of the cancellation of export tax rebates [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 79.63% week - on - week, remaining basically stable and at a neutral level in recent years. The downstream operating rate decreased by 0.11 percentage points week - on - week, with poor orders for downstream products and low willingness to stock up actively. Due to the cancellation of export tax rebates, there was a rush to export, and last week's PVC export orders increased significantly to a recent high. However, as export prices rose, the resistance to transactions increased. The social inventory continued to increase and remained high, with significant inventory pressure. The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, and the improvement of the real estate market still takes time. The macro - sentiment has subsided, the comprehensive gross profit of chlor - alkali is under pressure, and the operating expectations of some production enterprises have decreased, but the current production decline is limited [1] Futures and Spot Market - The PVC2605 contract increased in positions and moved downward in a sideways manner, with a minimum price of 4,708 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 4,807 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 4,743 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.33%. The position volume increased by 34,620 lots to 1,071,654 lots [2] Basis - On January 21, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in the East China region fell to 4,530 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 4,743 yuan/ton. The current basis was - 213 yuan/ton, strengthening by 14 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a relatively low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, affected by plants such as Fujian Wanhua and Yibin Tianyuan, the PVC operating rate decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 79.63% week - on - week, remaining basically stable and at a neutral level in recent years. New production capacities of 500,000 tons/year of Wanhua Chemical, 400,000 tons/year of Tianjin Bohua, 200,000 tons/year of Qingdao Gulf, and 300,000 tons/year of Gansu Yaowang were put into production in the second half of 2025. The 300,000 - ton/year Jiaxing Jiahua plant was in trial production in December 2025 [4] - On the demand side, the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. The year - on - year decline in investment, new construction, and completion areas is still large, and the year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, construction, and completion have further decreased. From January to December 2025, the national real estate development investment was 827.88 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17.2%. The sales area of commercial housing was 881.01 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.7%; the sales area of residential housing decreased by 9.2%. The sales volume of commercial housing was 839.37 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.6%, and the sales volume of residential housing decreased by 13.0%. The new construction area of housing was 587.70 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.4%; the new construction area of residential housing was 429.84 million square meters, a decrease of 19.8%. The construction area of housing by real estate development enterprises was 6.5989 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10.0%. The completion area of housing was 603.48 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.1%; the completion area of residential housing was 428.30 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.2%. As of the week of January 18, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 6.20% week - on - week, at the lowest level in recent years [5] - In terms of inventory, as of the week of January 15, the PVC social inventory increased by 2.70% week - on - week to 1.1441 million tons, a 48.60% increase compared to the same period last year. The social inventory continued to increase and remained high [6]