【冠通期货研究报告】芳烃日报：市场突发消息影响，谨防回调风险-20260121

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand of pure benzene has marginally improved, and the futures market is expected to remain strong in the short term, but due to the long upper shadow line of the closing K - line, there is a risk of correction. The short - term trend of styrene is strong, but also with a long upper shadow line at the close, and it is necessary to be cautious of a correction. Overall, a cautious bullish view is maintained. Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes due to frequent macro news [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - The 300,000 - ton/year styrene plant of Tangshan Xuyang had a malfunction and stopped production. The inventory is mainly for contract delivery, and there is no external quotation for now [1] - From January 10th to 16th, the operating rate of petroleum benzene decreased by 0.12% to 74.26% compared with the previous period, and the operating rate of hydrogenated benzene decreased by 4.07% to 57.59% [1] - From January 10th to 16th, the weighted operating rate of the downstream of pure benzene increased by 2.14% to 74.50% [1] - As of January 19th, the inventory of pure benzene at East China ports was 297,000 tons, a decrease of 8.33% compared with last week [1] - From January 9th to 15th, the profit of petroleum benzene was 369 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26 yuan/ton compared with the previous period [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - The National Development and Reform Commission will study, formulate and introduce an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030 [2] - Multiple departments such as the Ministry of Finance will implement a loan interest subsidy policy for small and medium - sized enterprises, set up a 500 - billion - yuan special guarantee plan quota for private investment to be implemented over two years, and extend the implementation period of the fiscal interest subsidy policy for personal consumption loans to the end of 2026. In 2026, the fiscal department will strongly support the stability of employment, enterprises, the market and expectations [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - The supply - demand of pure benzene has marginally improved, and the futures market is expected to remain strong in the short term, but due to the long upper shadow line of the closing K - line, there is a risk of correction [3] - The short - term trend of styrene is strong, but also with a long upper shadow line at the close, and it is necessary to be cautious of a correction. It has just broken through the 60 - day moving average on the weekly K - line and then pulled back. The trend near the pressure level should be continuously monitored, and an overall cautious bullish view is maintained. Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes due to frequent macro news [3]