Soochow Securities·2026-01-21 11:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the Robovan sector, particularly emphasizing the potential of L4 RoboX technology in 2026 [3]. Core Insights - The 2026 smart technology landscape differs from previous years, focusing more on AI logic and software opportunities rather than hardware and consumer sales [3]. - Key catalysts for Robovan's growth include model iterations, increased RoboX deployments, and supportive policy developments [3]. - The report highlights the successful penetration of Robovan in the express delivery sector, with expectations for expansion into fast-moving consumer goods, durable goods, and chain restaurant applications [3]. - Investment recommendations suggest a strong focus on L4 RoboX as a primary investment theme for 2026 [3]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report draws parallels between the current AI-driven transformation in transportation and the previous 4G mobile internet wave, noting that AI will enhance hardware capabilities and replace existing transportation methods [4][12]. - The report identifies Robovan as a key player in urban logistics, with significant potential for replacing traditional delivery vehicles [4][12]. Robovan Market Dynamics - Robovan's successful deployment in express delivery has led to approximately 27,000 units delivered in the first 11 months of 2025, primarily in the express sector [3]. - The report outlines the expected growth of Robovan in various logistics scenarios, including fast-moving consumer goods and durable goods delivery [3][46]. Technological Advancements - The report discusses the technological advancements in Robovan, including hardware and algorithm improvements that reduce costs and enhance operational efficiency [23][24]. - It emphasizes the importance of a robust supply chain and the integration of AI technologies to facilitate Robovan's commercial viability [23][24]. Policy Support - The report highlights ongoing government support for Robovan technology, with numerous policies aimed at facilitating the deployment and commercialization of autonomous delivery vehicles [12][19]. - It notes that over 250 cities have opened public road rights for Robovan, indicating a favorable regulatory environment for growth [20]. Market Potential - The urban delivery market is projected to reach 1.4292 trillion yuan in 2022, with Robovan expected to capture a significant share due to its efficiency in the supply chain [56]. - The report identifies that 64% of the urban delivery market consists of scenarios suitable for Robovan, indicating substantial growth opportunities [56].