中国经济复盘与展望：“反内卷”与结构突围

Economic Performance - In 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.0% year-on-year, achieving the expected target but showing a "high first, low second" trend throughout the year[1] - The GDP deflator index stabilized in the second half of 2025 due to "anti-involution" policies, indicating initial success in stabilizing prices[1] Economic Structure - The second industry saw a slowdown, while the third industry experienced growth, effectively offsetting each other, which is a positive structural change[2] - Final consumption contributed approximately 2.6% to GDP growth, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from 2024, while capital formation's contribution fell to about 0.8%, down 0.5 percentage points[20] Demand and Supply Dynamics - Domestic demand (consumption + investment) was at a historically low level, highlighting the ongoing issue of insufficient domestic demand[2] - The service sector's value-added share is significantly lower than that of high-income countries, indicating a lag in service sector development relative to production efficiency[23] Future Outlook - In 2026, China's GDP growth is expected to slightly decline to 4.8%, with a focus on optimizing economic structure and enhancing internal circulation[37] - The government is likely to continue supporting the development of new productive forces and modern service industries to stimulate consumption and employment[36] Risks - There are risks associated with reduced policy stimulus and uncertainties in overseas economic policies[4]