Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core View - The recent price increase is mainly due to the significant rise in spot prices. Considering that the March contract is for after the Spring Festival, when egg demand is weak and prices are low, the upward space for the 03 contract is expected to be relatively limited. The egg market is starting to reduce production capacity, and it is expected that the production capacity will likely continue to decline in the next few months [8]. Group 3: Summary by Directory I. Fundamental Information - Price: The average price in the main production areas is 3.64 yuan/jin, and in the main sales areas is 3.91 yuan/jin, both remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The national mainstream egg prices are mostly stable, with some areas showing price increases or minor fluctuations [2][4]. - Inventory: In December, the national in - laying hen inventory was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, and a 5% year - on - year increase, lower than expected. The monthly hatchling volume of egg - laying chicken seedlings in December was 39.59 million, with little change month - on - month and a 13.9% year - on - year decrease [5]. - Slaughter: From January 16th, the weekly slaughter volume of egg - laying hens in the main production areas was 17.33 million, with little change from the previous week. The average slaughter age of laying hens was 485 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week [5]. - Sales: As of January 8th, the weekly egg sales volume in representative sales areas was 7,391 tons, a 2.6% decrease from the previous week, at a historical low [5]. - Profit: As of January 15th, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was 0.13 yuan/jin, a 0.26 increase from the previous week. On January 9th, the expected profit of egg - laying chicken farming was - 14.14 yuan/feather, a 0.41 yuan/jin decrease from the previous week [6]. - Inventory Days: As of January 15th, the weekly average inventory in the production link was 0.97 days, and in the circulation link was 1.05 days, both slightly decreasing from the previous week [6]. - Price of Culled Hens: The price of culled hens in the main production areas is 4.45 yuan/jin, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [7]. II. Trading Logic - Near the Spring Festival, the overall market sales are fast, and the spot price has risen significantly, providing some support for the futures market. The egg market is starting to reduce production capacity, and it is expected that the production capacity will likely continue to decline in the next few months. The upward space for the 03 contract is expected to be relatively limited [8]. III. Trading Strategy - Single - side: Consider building long positions in the far - month 5 contracts on dips [9]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [11].
银河期货鸡蛋日报-20260121
Yin He Qi Huo·2026-01-21 11:08