Shan Jin Qi Huo·2026-01-21 11:19Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The short - term safe - haven situation has changed with the decline of trade - war safe - haven demand and the rise of geopolitical risks. The weakening US employment and moderate inflation still support the expectation of interest rate cuts. [1] - The geopolitical risks have increased due to Trump's statement on the Greenland issue and the strong responses from European countries. [1] - In terms of the monetary attribute, the US December CPI increase met expectations, but household food and rent expenditures rose. The US December employment growth almost stagnated, and the unemployment rate decline alleviated concerns about the deterioration of the labor market. The market expects the Fed not to cut interest rates in January 2026 with a probability of around 95%, and the next possible rate cut may be in June. [1] - Regarding the commodity attribute, the Polish central bank plans to buy up to 150 tons of gold. Silver is supported by tight supply. Platinum has strong demand expectations for platinum - based catalysts in the hydrogen energy industry. Palladium has short - term demand resilience but faces long - term structural pressure in the fuel - vehicle market. [1] - It is expected that precious metals will show short - term volatile strength, medium - term high - level volatility, and long - term step - up trends. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. [2] - Price: Comex gold active contract closed at $4769.10 per ounce, up 3.65% from the previous day and 3.80% from the previous week. London gold was at $4747.80 per ounce, up 1.73% from the previous day and 2.70% from the previous week. [2] - Position and Inventory: Comex gold position was 527,455 hands, up 9.46% from the previous week. LBMA gold inventory was 8598 tons, unchanged from the previous week. [2] Silver - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. [4] - Price: Comex silver active contract closed at $89.95 per ounce, up 5.63% from the previous week. London silver was at $93.01 per ounce, up 2.43% from the previous day and 10.63% from the previous week. [4] - Position and Inventory: Comex silver position was 151,513 hands, down 1.13% from the previous week. The total visible inventory was 42,214 tons, down 0.90% from the previous week. [4] Platinum - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. [6] - Price: NYMEX platinum active contract closed at $2272.90 per ounce, down 2.03% from the previous day but up 17.68% from the previous week. The platinum main contract on the GQEX closed at 686.95 yuan per gram, up 4.46% from the previous day and 26.60% from the previous week. [7] - Position and Inventory: NYMEX platinum active contract position was 18,095 hands, down 32.56% from the previous day and 21.89% from the previous week. NYMEX platinum total inventory was 21 tons, up 4.80% from the previous week. [7] Palladium - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. [10] - Price: NYMEX palladium active contract closed at $1821.00 per ounce, down 7.28% from the previous day but up 5.57% from the previous week. The palladium main contract on the GQEX closed at 529.05 yuan per gram, down 8.54% from the previous day but up 11.01% from the previous week. [10] - Position and Inventory: NYMEX palladium active contract position was 21,860 hands, up 0.86% from the previous day and 2.30% from the previous week. NYMEX palladium total inventory was 6 tons, up 3.49% from the previous week. [10] Key Fundamental Data of Precious Metals - Fed Indicators: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 3.75%, down 0.25% from the previous value. The Fed's total assets are $6632.72 billion, up 0.00% from the previous value. [11] - US Economic Indicators: GDP annualized year - on - year growth rate is 2.30%, up 0.30% from the previous value; annualized quarter - on - quarter growth rate is 4.30%, up 0.50% from the previous value. [11] - Geopolitical and Market Indicators: The geopolitical risk index is 295.76, up 62.59% from the previous day and 86.38% from the previous week. The VIX index is 20.09, up 6.63% from the previous day and 25.72% from the previous week. [13]