棕油劲升、白糖续跌

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The palm oil price continues to rise due to supply disruptions and strong demand, and it may remain strong in the future. The sugar price keeps falling because of sufficient supply and weak demand, and it is expected to decline further. The prices of live pigs, soybean meal, and cotton are all under pressure, while the egg price shows a narrow - range fluctuation [1][2][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Palm oil prices continue to rise. Indonesia's revocation of 28 companies' operating licenses and Malaysia's production - reduction and export - increase situation support the price. Sugar prices keep falling due to sufficient supply from new domestic sugar and increased imports and weak demand [1]. 2. Variety Strategy Tracking (1) Palm Oil - The palm oil main contract 2605 continues to rise strongly. Indonesia's revocation of 28 companies' licenses affects the supply. From January 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 16.06% month - on - month, and exports increased by 11.04% month - on - month. It is expected that the inventory reduction in January may be large. During the Spring Festival, demand may improve. Technically, it is strong. The strategy is to look for support levels at 8750 - 8780 to go long with a light position [2]. (2) Sugar - The Zhengzhou sugar main contract 2605 continues to fall. New sugar is concentrated on the market, and in December, China's sugar imports were 580,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 47.9%. The cumulative imports from January to December 2025 were 4.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.1%. The pre - festival stocking has limited effect, and the downstream purchasing slows down. Technically, it is weak. The strategy is to go short with a light position at the resistance area of 5180 - 5200 [3]. (3) Live Pigs - The live pig main contract 2603 continues to fall. The pig slaughter level is high, and the inventory at the end of 2025 was 429.67 million, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. The pre - festival stocking has not fully started, and the demand is insufficient. Technically, it is weak. The strategy is to go short with a light position at the resistance area of 11600 - 11700 [5]. (4) Soybean Meal - The soybean meal main contract 2605 rebounds weakly. The downstream feed enterprise pre - festival stocking is nearly over, and the inventory may rise. The raw material import of soybeans is large, and the supply is sufficient. Technically, it is weak. The strategy is to go short with a light position for short - term trading [7]. (5) Eggs - The egg main contract 2603 has a narrow - range fluctuation. The egg - laying hen inventory is high, and the supply is sufficient. The pre - festival stocking supports the price, but the downstream is afraid of high prices. Technically, it shows some strength. The strategy is short - term trading [9]. (6) Cotton - The cotton main contract 2605 first rises and then falls. The expected decrease in Xinjiang's cotton planting area in 2026 has been digested. In December 2025, cotton imports increased by nearly 50% month - on - month, and the annual import in 2025 was 1.07 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 59.1%. The inventory increased slightly. The demand is resilient. Technically, it is weak. The strategy is short - term trading [12].