天富期货碳酸锂、多晶硅、工业硅日报-20260121

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The lithium carbonate market is volatile, with potential price increases in the medium - to - long - term due to strong terminal demand for domestic energy storage projects. The polysilicon market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short - term but with limited upside. The industrial silicon market has a high inventory and weak demand, and its price may decline [1][7][15]. 3. Summary by Commodity Lithium Carbonate - Market Trend: The lithium carbonate futures contract 2605 rose 3.89% to 166,740 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [1]. - Core Logic: Although the new energy vehicle sales from January 1st - 11th dropped significantly, the "rush to export" behavior of downstream lithium carbonate enterprises and the resumption of production by some phosphate - iron - lithium enterprises increased demand. On the supply side, some lithium mines in Yichun are facing license replacement and production suspension, causing concerns about supply stability. Most of the inventory is in the hands of traders, and the inventory of smelters and downstream enterprises is low [1]. - Technical Analysis: The 5 - minute and overnight 2 - hour cycles of the 2605 contract show certain trends, with a long - short dividing line of 146,200 yuan/ton [1]. - Strategy Suggestion: Be cautious in the short - term, wait for the market to stabilize and then buy at low prices. In the long - term, the price center may move up [2][3]. Polysilicon - Market Trend: The polysilicon futures contract 2605 fell 1.97% to 49,700 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [7]. - Core Logic: Some leading polysilicon enterprises plan to stop production, and the output in February is expected to decline. The demand is expected to increase due to the increase in the production schedule of cells and components from January to February. However, the market will return to cost - based trading after the anti - monopoly news, and high inventory will suppress prices [7][9]. - Technical Analysis: The 5 - minute and overnight 2 - hour cycles of the 2605 contract show certain trends, with a long - short dividing line of 48,670 yuan/ton [9]. - Strategy Suggestion: It may be volatile and slightly stronger in the short - term. Pay attention to the subsequent policies of "anti - involution" [10][11]. Industrial Silicon - Market Trend: The industrial silicon futures contract 2605 rose 0.40% to 8,780 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [15]. - Core Logic: The supply is decreasing as the southwest production area has a low operating rate and the northwest production area has frequent production - cut news. The demand is weak, and the overall inventory is at a five - year high, so the price may decline [15]. - Technical Analysis: The market is controlled by short - sellers. The 5 - minute and overnight 2 - hour cycles of the 2605 contract show certain trends, with a long - short dividing line of 8,605 yuan/ton [15]. - Strategy Suggestion: Sell short when the price is high. Refer to the band winner indicator during the 8:30 live broadcast [15].