【冠通期货研究报告】甲醇日报：静待库存拐点-20260121

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The futures market of methanol maintains a volatile trend, and the support of the 60 - day moving average at the daily - level has not been effectively broken. There is a high possibility of an inventory inflection point in the first quarter, and investors can pay attention to buying opportunities after a decline. Currently, methanol is in a low - valuation state, and it is prone to a low - level rebound. Attention should be paid to the changes in sentiment due to frequent macro news [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - As of January 14, 2026, the total inventory of methanol ports in China was 1.4403 million tons, a decrease of 96,900 tons compared with the previous period. The inventory in East China decreased by 84,400 tons, and that in South China decreased by 12,500 tons. The significant reduction in port inventory this week was mainly due to the small total unloading volume, with 96,100 tons of explicit outer - ship unloading and 125,000 tons of non - explicit inclusion. The提货 in the mainstream storage areas along the Yangtze River in Jiangsu was okay, while that in other social storage areas in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was average. Although there were new terminal shutdowns in Zhejiang, the inventory decreased significantly due to less unloading. In South China, the inventory in Guangdong decreased with a small amount of imports and domestic trade arrivals and stable提货 in the mainstream storage areas. In Fujian, with imports and domestic trade supplementing the supply and downstream consumption on - demand, the inventory fluctuated little [1]. Macroeconomic Analysis - The National Development and Reform Commission will study, formulate and introduce an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030. Multiple departments including the Ministry of Finance will implement a loan interest - subsidy policy for small, medium and micro enterprises, set up a 500 - billion - yuan special guarantee plan for private investment to be implemented over two years, and extend the implementation period of the fiscal interest - subsidy policy for personal consumer loans to the end of 2026. In 2026, the fiscal department will strongly support the stability of employment, enterprises, the market and expectations [2]. Futures and Spot Market Analysis - The futures market of methanol maintains a volatile trend, and the support of the 60 - day moving average at the daily - level needs to be focused on in the short term. There is a high possibility of an inventory inflection point in the first quarter, and buying opportunities after a decline can be appropriately paid attention to. Currently, methanol is in a low - valuation state and is prone to a low - level rebound. Attention should be paid to the changes in sentiment due to frequent macro news [3].