【冠通期货研究报告】PP日报：震荡运行-20260121

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The PP market is expected to oscillate weakly due to limited improvement in the supply - demand pattern, shorter downstream order cycles, and shrinking downstream product profits. The L - PP spread is expected to decline as there are newly added plastic production capacities and decreasing agricultural film orders [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - As of the week ending January 16th, the PP downstream operating rate decreased by 0.07 percentage points to 52.53% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period of previous years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring PP, dropped by 0.32 percentage points to 42.6%, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year. On January 21st, the number of maintenance devices changed little, the PP enterprise operating rate remained around 80% (a neutral - to - low level), and the drawstring production ratio rose to around 27.5%. Petrochemical inventory reduction was good in the first and middle of January but was average recently, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period of recent years. The Iran situation has cooled, and recent crude oil prices have declined. There is a new 400,000 - ton/year production capacity from PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical put into operation in mid - October, and the number of recent maintenance devices has slightly decreased. The price of downstream BOPP film has rebounded, but new orders for downstream plastic weaving are limited as the Spring Festival holiday approaches. The macro sentiment has faded, and the PP supply - demand pattern has limited improvement [1] Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The PP2605 contract oscillated with increasing positions, with a minimum price of 6446 yuan/ton, a maximum of 6491 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6485 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, up 0.42%. The open interest increased by 2082 lots to 468323 lots [2] - Spot: Most spot prices of PP in various regions declined. Drawstring PP was reported at 6150 - 6610 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On January 21st, the number of maintenance devices changed little, the PP enterprise operating rate remained around 80% (a neutral - to - low level), and the drawstring production ratio rose to around 27.5% [4] - Demand: As of the week ending January 16th, after the New Year's Day holiday, the PP downstream operating rate decreased by 0.07 percentage points to 52.53% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period of previous years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring PP, dropped by 0.32 percentage points to 42.6%, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [4] - Inventory: The petrochemical early - morning inventory on Wednesday decreased by 10,000 tons to 550,000 tons week - on - week, 55,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Inventory reduction was good in the first and middle of January but was average recently, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period of recent years [4] Raw Material End - Brent crude oil contract 03 rose to $64 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $785 per ton week - on - week [6]