【冠通期货研究报告】焦炭日报：短期偏震荡-20260121

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the coke industry is "sideways" [1] Core Viewpoint - The overall supply - demand of coke is weak during the seasonal inventory accumulation phase, with relatively stable downstream steel mill hot - metal production and on - demand restocking. The real - estate investment growth decline continues to widen, and long - term demand continues to decline. With a generally positive macro - environment, the coke market will mainly show wide - range fluctuations. In the short term, attention should be paid to the support performance near the previous low, and a low - buying strategy can be adopted [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Coke Inventory: As of January 16th, independent coke enterprise inventory decreased by 4.95% month - on - month to 81.81 tons, steel mill inventory increased to 650.33 tons, port inventory increased by 6.41% to 265.07 tons, and the comprehensive coke inventory increased by 16.31 tons to 997.21 tons, reaching a 7 - month high, with a year - on - year decrease of over 2% [1] - Profit: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is -65 yuan/ton. The average profit of Shandong quasi - first - grade coke is -53 yuan/ton, -7 yuan/ton in another record, Inner Mongolia second - grade coke average profit is -105 yuan/ton, and Hebei quasi - first - grade coke average profit is -12 yuan/ton [1] - Downstream Demand: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.47 percentage points to 78.84%, a year - on - year increase of 1.66 percentage points. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate decreased to 85.48%, and the daily hot - metal output decreased by 1.49 tons month - on - month to 228.01 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.53 tons [1] Upstream Coking Coal - Coking coal inventory in coal mines decreased by 7.66%, independent coke enterprise coking coal inventory increased by 5.71% to 1132.85 tons, steel mill coking coal inventory slightly increased to 802.2 tons, and port imported coking coal inventory continued to increase. The comprehensive coking coal inventory increased by nearly 2% month - on - month to 2769.85 tons, lower than the previous year's level [2] News - In 2025, the fiscal deficit ratio was about 4%, up one percentage point from the previous year, and the new government debt scale was 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan from the previous year. In 2026, the total fiscal deficit, debt, and expenditure will be maintained at a necessary level. Five departments including the Ministry of Finance announced a loan interest subsidy policy for small, medium, and micro - enterprises. The Minister of Housing and Urban - Rural Development stated that efforts will be made to stabilize the real - estate market this year and support the reasonable financing needs of real - estate enterprises [2]